Monday, December 21, 2015

Since It's A Slow Week... Credit Bubble Stocks Reader Poll

A correspondent sent this in:

Would you go long or short the following from current levels (assuming you must hold for at least three years):
  1. Long-dated oil futures
  2. Martin Shkreli
  3. A spot-priced commodity basket
  4. helium futures (if they existed)
  5. Any current republican candidate (write in which one)
  6. long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures
  7. Berkshire Hathaway equity
  8. AAPL equity
  9. VRX
  10. HLF
  11. The US Capital Gains tax rate
  12. The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations
  13. A basket of equity in the TBTF banks
  14. LUK
  15. Canadian Looney
  16. Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD
  17. write-in
Answer in the comments.
at

21 comments:

  1. wildcatDecember 21, 2015 at 10:39 AM


    LONG - Long-dated oil futures
    LONG - Martin Shkreli
    LONG - A spot-priced commodity basket
    LONG - helium futures (if they existed)
    SHORT TRUMP - Any current republican candidate (write in which one)
    LONG - long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures
    LONG - Berkshire Hathaway equity
    SHORT - AAPL equity
    SHORT - VRX
    SHORT - HLF
    LONG - The US Capital Gains tax rate
    SHORT - The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations
    SHORT - A basket of equity in the TBTF banks
    LONG - LUK
    LONG - Canadian Looney
    SHORT - Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD
    LONG TWTR - write-in

    ReplyDelete
  2. CPDecember 21, 2015 at 10:41 AM

    1) Long-dated oil futures > Reluctantly long. I think this will be a consensus trade.

    2) Martin Shkreli > Not sure what index this is, but "short".

    3) A spot-priced commodity basket > Short

    4) helium futures (if they existed) > Long (consensus?)

    5) Any current republican candidate (write in which one) > Long Trump

    6) long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures > Long I suppose. More consensus.

    7) Berkshire Hathaway equity > Short! This is the first one that I would consider actually putting on.

    8) AAPL equity > Short.

    9) VRX > Short.

    10) HLF > Long.

    11) The US Capital Gains tax rate > I don't think it will change too soon. Short a straddle.

    12) The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations > Short the rate. Trump will get this done.

    13) A basket of equity in the TBTF banks > Short.

    14) LUK > Short.

    15) Canadian Looney > Short (vs USD)

    16) Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD > Short!

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousDecember 21, 2015 at 10:43 AM

    1) Long-dated oil futures > long

    2) Martin Shkreli > long RTRX/Turing/KBIO, short Shkreli himself (so long CXW corrections corp)

    3) A spot-priced commodity basket > long

    4) helium futures (if they existed) > long

    5) Any current republican candidate (write in which one) > Long Cruz, Short Rubio pair trade

    6) long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures > long

    7) Berkshire Hathaway equity > short

    8) AAPL equity > short

    9) VRX > short

    10) HLF > short

    11) The US Capital Gains tax rate >already going up with the Obamacare surcharge, long increasing tax rate

    12) The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations > long, will happen

    13) A basket of equity in the TBTF banks > long

    14) LUK > short

    15) Canadian Looney > short

    16) Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD > short

    ReplyDelete
  4. CPDecember 21, 2015 at 10:43 AM

    I think my "portfolio" will outperform wildcat. TWTR long pick is maybe your worst idea.

    ReplyDelete
  5. CPDecember 21, 2015 at 10:49 AM

    By the way - scoring of the 2015 prediction contest will be this week. Lots of you did terribly!

    http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2014/12/predictions-for-2015-from-readership-80.html

    ReplyDelete
  6. wildcatDecember 21, 2015 at 11:03 AM

    "hollywood" gets a big shot at this 2015 prediction today:

    Elon Musk completes a controlled vertical landing of a Falcon rocket on land.

    ReplyDelete
  7. CPDecember 21, 2015 at 11:09 AM

    Yes, I think he may get 5 right if that happens? Not much time to go!

    ReplyDelete
  8. WalterDecember 21, 2015 at 1:51 PM

    1) Long-dated oil futures > long
    2) Martin Shkreli > gotta be cheap now. he's going to jail, not to zero. long
    3) A spot-priced commodity basket > short
    4) helium futures (if they existed) > long
    5) Any current republican candidate (write in which one) > Trump, short
    6) long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures > long
    7) Berkshire Hathaway equity > long
    8) AAPL equity > short
    9) VRX > short
    10) HLF > long
    11) The US Capital Gains tax rate > neither
    12) The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations > short
    13) A basket of equity in the TBTF banks > long
    14) LUK > short
    15) Canadian Looney > short
    16) Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD > short
    17) Write-in: Chinese Yuan, short

    ReplyDelete
  9. CPDecember 21, 2015 at 1:57 PM

    Long oil is so consensus!

    ReplyDelete
  10. Neutral Zone CapitalistDecember 21, 2015 at 2:34 PM

    Answers assume I'm forced to choose with gun to my head

    1) Long-dated oil futures > Also reluctantly long, particularly since it goes lower first before it goes higher

    2) Martin Shkreli > It would depend on the borrow cost, but I want to short cause he is a zero

    3) A spot-priced commodity basket > Long, but this is a minimum sized bet

    4) helium futures (if they existed) > Outcome chosen based on results of coin flip

    5) Any current republican candidate (write in which one) > would depend on whether we are talking nomination or general election. If republican nomination only, short the entire field other than Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush. It matters not the odds, none have a chance. You can currently get great odds on Carson, so short him twice. If it weren't for the 3 year hold requirement, long Bush, but only for a trade, as his numbers will go higher for a time some once the voting starts and the field begins to shrink. If we are talking about the general election, then short ALL republicans as Hillary will win (this is a bet, not a vote)

    6) long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures > maybe consensus, but very, very long. Then once, my republican, Skkreli, HLF prop bet and VRX shorts pay off, use proceeds to double down on long position

    7) Berkshire Hathaway equity > long, but only if I can short out Burlington Northern

    8) AAPL equity > long in very small size

    9) VRX > Short. Extra short position just for Pearson

    10) HLF > I only want to get in on the prop bet on whether the FTC accuses them of being a pyramid scheme. Big-time short of the Ack pyramid scheme thesis.

    11) The US Capital Gains tax rate > Hillary won't touch this so sell OTM options and pocket time premium

    12) The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations > Short the rate. Whoever gets elected will lower it as a misguided attempt at stimulus in the next recession

    13) A basket of equity in the TBTF banks > Can I just short C, cause that always seems like a good bet, otherwise small long

    14) LUK > Short until they come up with a comprehensible business strategy

    15) Canadian Looney > Long (vs USD) but only because it is a 3 year bet

    16) Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD > Short!

    ReplyDelete
  11. T. BurnsteadDecember 21, 2015 at 3:26 PM

    LONG - Long-dated oil futures
    SHORT - Martin Shkreli
    LONG - A spot-priced commodity basket
    LONG - helium futures (if they existed)
    SHORT Rubio - Any current republican candidate (write in which one)
    LONG - long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures
    LONG - Berkshire Hathaway equity
    LONG - AAPL equity
    LONG - VRX
    SHORT - HLF
    LONG - The US Capital Gains tax rate
    LONG - The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations
    LONG - A basket of equity in the TBTF banks
    LONG - LUK
    LONG - Canadian Looney
    SHORT - Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD
    LONG BXE - write-in

    ReplyDelete
  12. JamesDecember 21, 2015 at 3:37 PM

    1. short
    2. short
    3. short
    4. long
    5. short Rubio
    6. long
    7. short
    8. short
    9. short
    10. short
    11. long
    12. long
    13. short
    14. short
    15. short
    16. short

    ReplyDelete
  13. Josh HDecember 21, 2015 at 4:54 PM

    1. Long
    2. Short
    3. Long
    4. Long (I guess?)
    5. Short Reps
    6. Long
    7. Long
    8. Long
    9. Long
    10. Short
    11. Short
    12. Short
    13. Long
    14. Long
    15. Long
    16. Short
    17. Short FB

    ReplyDelete
  14. CPDecember 21, 2015 at 4:54 PM

    James, what's a fair price for long dated oil?

    ReplyDelete
  15. AdmiralDecember 21, 2015 at 5:40 PM

    1. Long 2022+ delivery
    2. Balls short
    3. Long
    4. Long - Goodyear replacing its fleet is just the beginning of the helium Zeppelin's comeback
    5. Balls short: a certain hotel magnate
    6. No position
    7. Long
    8. Long
    9. Balls short
    10. Short
    11. Long
    12. Long
    13. Long
    14. Long
    15. Calendar spread - Short spot, long 5y forward
    16. Short
    17. Stowe Coal Index: Short

    ReplyDelete
  16. CPDecember 21, 2015 at 5:41 PM

    Thanks Admiral.

    #5 - You mean Sheldon Adelson's investment in Rubio?

    ReplyDelete
  17. CPDecember 21, 2015 at 5:42 PM

    P.S. Admiral - not balls long anything?

    ReplyDelete
  18. innerscorecardDecember 21, 2015 at 6:07 PM

    1. Short - Long-dated oil futures
    2. Long - Martin Shkreli. Even if he serves a jail term, he'll find some way to bounce back, whether as a self-help guru or a consultant or something like that.
    3. Short - A spot-priced commodity basket
    4. Short - helium futures (if they existed)
    5. Short Marco Rubio. If he were to somehow win the Republican primary, he would lose the general election.
    6. Short - long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures
    7. Long - Berkshire Hathaway equity
    8. Long - AAPL equity
    9. Short - VRX
    10. Long - HLF
    11. Long - The US Capital Gains tax rate
    12. Long - The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations
    13. Long - A basket of equity in the TBTF banks
    14. Long - LUK
    15. Short - Canadian Looney
    16. Short - Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD
    17. Short - US labor participation rate

    ReplyDelete
  19. JamesDecember 24, 2015 at 7:02 AM

    James, what's a fair price for long dated oil?

    Somewhere in the 20s.

    ReplyDelete
  20. JamesDecember 24, 2015 at 7:06 AM

    To be clear: I don't expect it to go there next year, but I think all commodities will eventually return to their 2002-03 prices.

    ReplyDelete
  21. CPSeptember 9, 2018 at 5:31 PM

    Bump!

    ReplyDelete