Credit Bubble Stocks has compiled the most interesting potential events submitted by readers into a master list.
New
* Either Buffett or Munger dies
* A Supreme Court justice is confirmed to replace Scalia
* Another Supreme Court seat opens
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336%
* Either VRX or SHLD enter bankruptcy
* The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax
* The state and local taxes deduction is eliminated from federal income tax
* Global negative yielding debt goes from ~$10 trillion to under $1 trillion
* Bitcoin (@$901) outperforms gold (@$1182)
* Any country leaves the Euro currency
* Buying equal dollar basket of SHLD, JWN, M, WMT outperforms Amazon
* Another Decacorn (peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud
* Twitter is taken private
* The RMB/USD exchange rate goes over 8 at any point
* The S&P 500 exceeds 2,500
* Donald Trump is President of the United States at the end of the year
* Someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos at the end of year (resigns, court appointed receiver, trustee, etc)
Carryover of the Didn't Happen in 2016
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above 3.5%
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year treasury
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity)
* Gold trades below $1000
* Gold trades above $2000
* Crude trades above $62.58
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed)
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn leaves the business (dies, fired, resigns, manages personal money only)
* Hussman is up for the year including dividends (fund currently $7.13)
* CMG trades below 300
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% including dividends
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any point
* A Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall
Now, everyone can take the master list and give a probability estimate for each event. You can either submit your probabilities via email or leave them in the comments below (in which case you need to give a unique username).
At the end of the year, the contest is scored. We add up your probability estimates for each event that happens. We subtract your probability estimates for each event that doesn't happen. The net is your score.
Note: there is going to be a revised scoring method that punishes extreme 0% / 100% estimates if you are wrong.
ReplyDeleteDetails to come.
ReplyDelete2017 Prediction Contest
New
50% * Either Buffett or Munger dies
90% * A Supreme Court justice is confirmed to replace Scalia
20% * Another Supreme Court seat opens
10% * The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336%
10% * Either VRX or SHLD enter bankruptcy
0% * The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax
10% * The state and local taxes deduction is eliminated from federal income tax
90% * Global negative yielding debt goes from ~$10 trillion to under $1 trillion
50% * Bitcoin (@$901) outperforms gold (@$1182)
10% * Any country leaves the Euro currency
50% * Buying equal dollar basket of SHLD, JWN, M, WMT outperforms Amazon
5% * Another Decacorn (peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud
20% * Twitter is taken private
10% * The RMB/USD exchange rate goes over 8 at any point
50% * The S&P 500 exceeds 2,500
95% * Donald Trump is President of the United States at the end of the year
50% * Someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos at the end of year (resigns, court appointed receiver, trustee, etc)
Carryover of the Didn't Happen in 2016
50% * The 10 year Treasury yield rises above 3.5%
5% * A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year treasury
50% * A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity)
50% * Gold trades below $1000
20% * Gold trades above $2000
90% * Crude trades above $62.58
33% * One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed)
0% * A nuclear weapon is used in anger
30% * One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn leaves the business (dies, fired, resigns, manages personal money only)
25% * Hussman is up for the year including dividends (fund currently $7.13)
25% * CMG trades below 300
25% * Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% including dividends
90% * The BBB yield closes above 5% at any point
25% * A Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall
Don't put zero...
ReplyDeletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoring_rule#Logarithmic_scoring_rule
Any zeros will be changed to 0.001 so that you don't get a score of negative infinity.
1% * A nuclear weapon is used in anger
ReplyDelete1% * The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax
The hurricane is continental U.S. - just as last year.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDelete26% Either Buffett or Munger dies - straight from the SSA mortality table!
10% A Supreme Court justice is confirmed to replace Scalia
15% Another Supreme Court seat opens - mortality tables again
20% The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336%
80% Either VRX or SHLD enter bankruptcy
5% The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax
5% The state and local taxes deduction is eliminated from federal income tax
40% Global negative yielding debt goes from ~$10 trillion to under $1 trillion
20% Bitcoin (@$901) outperforms gold (@$1182)
20% Any country leaves the Euro currency
50% Buying equal dollar basket of SHLD, JWN, M, WMT outperforms Amazon
10% Another Decacorn (peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud
70% Twitter is taken private
70% The RMB/USD exchange rate goes over 8 at any point
20% The S&P 500 exceeds 2,500
80% Donald Trump is President of the United States at the end of the year
90% Someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos at the end of year (resigns, court appointed receiver, trustee, etc)
Carryover of the Didn't Happen in 2016
60% The 10 year Treasury yield rises above 3.5%
60% A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year treasury
60% A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity)
60% Gold trades below $1000
20% Gold trades above $2000
25% Crude trades above $62.58
25% One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed)
0% A nuclear weapon is used in anger - willing to bet I won't be reading the results if this happens
70% One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn leaves the business (dies, fired, resigns, manages personal money only)
50% Hussman is up for the year including dividends (fund currently $7.13)
70% CMG trades below 300
50% Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% including dividends
90% The BBB yield closes above 5% at any point
90% A Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall
New
ReplyDelete* Either Buffett or Munger dies - 25%
* A Supreme Court justice is confirmed to replace Scalia - 100%
* Another Supreme Court seat opens - 50%
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% - 10%
* Either VRX or SHLD enter bankruptcy - 50%
* The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax - 10%
* The state and local taxes deduction is eliminated from federal income tax - 10%
* Global negative yielding debt goes from ~$10 trillion to under $1 trillion - 66%
* Bitcoin (@$901) outperforms gold (@$1182) - 33%
* Any country leaves the Euro currency - 25%
* Buying equal dollar basket of SHLD, JWN, M, WMT outperforms Amazon - 25%
* Another Decacorn (peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud - 25%
* Twitter is taken private - 33%
* The RMB/USD exchange rate goes over 8 at any point - 51%
* The S&P 500 exceeds 2,500 - 50%
* Donald Trump is President of the United States at the end of the year - 100%
* Someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos at the end of year (resigns, court appointed receiver, trustee, etc) - 66%
Carryover of the Didn't Happen in 2016
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above 3.5% - 25%
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year treasury - 33%
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) - 50%
* Gold trades below $1000 - 10%
* Gold trades above $2000 - 25%
* Crude trades above $62.58 - 51%
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed) - 25%
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger - 5%
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn leaves the business (dies, fired, resigns, manages personal money only) - 66%
* Hussman is up for the year including dividends (fund currently $7.13) - 50%
* CMG trades below 300 - 66%
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% including dividends - 50%
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any point - 50%
* A Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall - 50%
2017 Prediction Contest
ReplyDeleteNew
31% * Either Buffett or Munger dies
95% * A Supreme Court justice is confirmed to replace Scalia
15% * Another Supreme Court seat opens
20% * The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336%
35% * Either VRX or SHLD enter bankruptcy
5% * The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax
10% * The state and local taxes deduction is eliminated from federal income tax
60% * Global negative yielding debt goes from ~$10 trillion to under $1 trillion
30% * Bitcoin (@$901) outperforms gold (@$1182)
10% * Any country leaves the Euro currency
60% * Buying equal dollar basket of SHLD, JWN, M, WMT outperforms Amazon
35% * Another Decacorn (peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud
10% * Twitter is taken private
33% * The RMB/USD exchange rate goes over 8 at any point
30% * The S&P 500 exceeds 2,500
95% * Donald Trump is President of the United States at the end of the year
30% * Someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos at the end of year (resigns, court appointed receiver, trustee, etc)
Carryover of the Didn't Happen in 2016
20% * The 10 year Treasury yield rises above 3.5%
30% * A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year treasury
33% * A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity)
66% * Gold trades below $1000
10% * Gold trades above $2000
25% * Crude trades above $62.58
10% * One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed)
5% * A nuclear weapon is used in anger
10% * One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn leaves the business (dies, fired, resigns, manages personal money only)
40% * Hussman is up for the year including dividends (fund currently $7.13)
5% * CMG trades below 300
40% * Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% including dividends
30% * The BBB yield closes above 5% at any point
50% * A Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall