tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post1023494154404724365..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: Review of Fooling Some of the People All of the Time, A Long Short Story by David EinhornUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-29682202129031330142014-09-11T22:08:28.825-07:002014-09-11T22:08:28.825-07:00The updated version is the same version as before ...The updated version is the same version as before (at least I think) but has an extra 50-60 pages at the end with the ending. <br /><br />I am curious on the perception of the thesis changing? Can you elaborate? My thinking is that the thesis is that Allied is a fraud and Einhorn kept uncovering more and more fraudulent loans. <br /><br />I also found it incredible the amount of time and resources that were spent doing the research. Josh Hnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-8977261200782770922014-09-11T10:18:05.328-07:002014-09-11T10:18:05.328-07:00James, that's a great point about the evolving...James, that's a great point about the evolving thesis. <br /><br />And the public bashing is dangerous. Look at Ackman and Herbalife. (I think Hempton is right and Ackman is wrong, btw.) A gigantic, public position becomes something from which you can't back down.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-15265057646593427842014-09-11T04:29:06.950-07:002014-09-11T04:29:06.950-07:00I picked this up and couldn't understand why a...I picked this up and couldn't understand why anyone would read it. It does show one thing, that value investing requires a certain belief in justice, that the market rewards people who make the right decisions for the right reasons. That's also clear from Lowenstein's book on Buffett. Unfortunately that same deep conviction can also lead to this sort of thing. bjdubbsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-1441893215713698622014-09-10T19:40:13.325-07:002014-09-10T19:40:13.325-07:00Allied doesn't seem to have performed worse du...Allied doesn't seem to have performed worse during the credit crisis than other BDCs like ACAS. I looked up historical data for Sirrom, and it likewise doesn't seem to have done worse than other BDCs in 1998-- they were all down 50%+ during the LTCM drama.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06597727760854955867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-6629671190576578752014-09-10T19:37:27.319-07:002014-09-10T19:37:27.319-07:00I found FSOTPAOTT fascinating. Not so much for its...I found FSOTPAOTT fascinating. Not so much for its description of Allied, which was a run-of-the-mill BDC Ponzi, but for Einhorn's rationale for sticking with a losing investment for years. He writes at the beginning of the book about the dangers of having an "evolving thesis" and then does exactly that with Allied. <br /><br />I suspect he would have been quicker to cut his losses if he hadn't criticized the company publicly. When they responded to his presentation by blatantly lying, that set him off and made him obsessed with proving the company was a fraud. He says it's a cautionary tale about nefarious companies, lazy regulators, etc.--- I would say it's a cautionary tale about marrying your trades and feeling a need to be right.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06597727760854955867noreply@blogger.com