tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post1436554407689052266..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: "Walter Energy's bonds lose $363 million on coal woes" $WLTUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-62068408961892254572014-10-01T18:22:13.390-07:002014-10-01T18:22:13.390-07:00You could read up a bit on the company and on met ...You could read up a bit on the company and on met coal. <br /><br />Walter bought a competitor (with debt, not stock) at the absolute peak of the met coal cycle. <br /><br />It may be the highest print that met coal will ever see, because it's highly unlikely that a supply destruction (AUS mine floods) and insane demand (Chinese buildings to nowhere) of that magnitude would ever occur simultaneously again.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-64636428311322815372014-10-01T18:07:59.880-07:002014-10-01T18:07:59.880-07:00But to answer your question, it's easy to valu...But to answer your question, it's easy to value all of the different parts of the capital structure if you have a met coal price forecast.<br />CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-30715668865403424232014-10-01T17:59:05.470-07:002014-10-01T17:59:05.470-07:00The unsecureds are trading below 30 and they are a...The unsecureds are trading below 30 and they are a donut too. CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-57267804562123696632014-10-01T15:30:30.323-07:002014-10-01T15:30:30.323-07:00Stock at $2 seems really cheap, especially with ~2...Stock at $2 seems really cheap, especially with ~2 yrs liquidity. When the world was ending in late 2008 the stock was less than $20, went to nearly $140 some 2 years later. <br /><br />Anyone smarter than me care to opine on how to value these kinds of plays? I know it should be valued like an option...$140M market cap with $2.8B EV, I feel like the option value on these kinds of things are normally closer to 10% of the EVjHurthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04137029150343569722noreply@blogger.com