tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post2199580450612419652..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: Latest Horizon Kinetics On IndexingUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-87181098206282319572015-07-24T15:35:23.112-07:002015-07-24T15:35:23.112-07:00I totally agree about the fad of passive investing...I totally agree about the fad of passive investing. But what do you think the catalyst will be to break it? In 2000, we had not only a giant tech bubble obviously, but also a mega-cap bubble. The outcome for S&P 500 investors for the next 5-10 years was terrible compared to just about any other asset class. It was the easiest stretch in history to "beat" the market. Now the big mega caps don't look out of line compared to anything else and might even been better than a lot of stuff I see. If the S&P 500 goes down 40-50% from here, I don't think "active" investors are going to do a lot better. Only the cash holders will be okay and that was true of the financial crisis. If the post-2000 period didn't break passive investing, and the financial crisis didn't break passive investing, what will? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-38487831488396540142015-07-07T12:48:08.972-07:002015-07-07T12:48:08.972-07:00I know that. My point was that saying WMT's w...I know that. My point was that saying WMT's weighting went down 38% is wrong...unless every other stock had 0 insider ownership.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-3022166978945247312015-07-07T12:20:15.888-07:002015-07-07T12:20:15.888-07:00The average S&P stock does not have insider ow...The average S&P stock does <i>not</i> have insider ownership of 40%. Not even close.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-40830655252488767012015-07-07T09:23:31.801-07:002015-07-07T09:23:31.801-07:00I like reading the Horizon papers, but they tend t...I like reading the Horizon papers, but they tend to simplify things too much.<br /><br />I don't have a link, but I remember them writing about (and buying) Sears Canada based on the sale of 5-10 properties. They extrapolated the sales price out to all of Sears Canada's stores and concluded that it was cheap.<br /><br />Wal-Mart's weighting wouldn't have been reduced 38% because the other 499 stocks in the S&P 500 also presumably had shares held by insiders. Just to make a point...if the average S&P stock had insider ownership of 40%, WMT's weighting would have actually increased.<br /><br />Revenue growth in 2014 was also impacted by the stronger dollar and lower oil prices...which they fail to mention.<br /><br />All that being said, the point about indexes buying more of a stock that insiders are selling is a good one.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-52602870323205810632015-07-06T23:48:40.770-07:002015-07-06T23:48:40.770-07:00Index funds now have the ultimate appeal from auth...Index funds now have the ultimate appeal from authority - people can say that Buffett recommended them!innerscorecardhttp://innerscorecard.conoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-10863869676636075182015-07-06T22:11:18.365-07:002015-07-06T22:11:18.365-07:00I thought Buffett endorsed index funds on the basi...I thought Buffett endorsed index funds on the basis that nearly none of the managed funds ever beat the indexes so why fight it? Ditto for Mr Bogle who went a step further and advised total market funds on the same logic as Buffett. <br />And why not index funds? Today, many big winners come out of hard to understand technology or technology that catches you off guard as it blooms into a big business. Fund mgrs are just like you and I and don't always pick up on whats new and on the rise. If they don't invest in it then you, dear shareholder, miss out on that wonderful wealth creation. whydibuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10101676402335591169noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-35139247461182961602015-07-06T19:45:49.790-07:002015-07-06T19:45:49.790-07:00Good comment on that post:
"It's simply ...Good comment on that post:<br /><br /><i>"It's simply not possible to go from a world where equities are predominantly held by a relatively sophisticated sliver of society to one where the marginal investor is an indiscriminate buyer / seller, effectively timing transactions around their life cycle, and expect returns to be the same."</i>CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-30326897558092167632015-07-06T19:44:51.848-07:002015-07-06T19:44:51.848-07:00Munger:
"Index funds will be permanent owners...Munger:<br /><i>"Index funds will be permanent owners who can never sell. That will give them power they are not likely to use well."</i><br />http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2015/03/notes-from-mungers-q-session-after.htmlCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.com