tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post3761182756262593660..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: Unpeak Oil? "SHALE 2.0: Technology and the Coming Big-Data Revolution in America’s Shale Oil Fields" by Mark P. MillsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-37237168612787748872015-08-17T11:42:20.127-07:002015-08-17T11:42:20.127-07:00It easy to make that mistake. Japan has been in Q...It easy to make that mistake. Japan has been in QE for decades and interest rates are at a half!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-67525263956886314742015-08-17T09:07:01.819-07:002015-08-17T09:07:01.819-07:00Have you looked at PVA? Equity is trading like BK ...Have you looked at PVA? Equity is trading like BK is a near certainty in the not too distant future.eahnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-58685408103088782622015-08-16T17:34:19.741-07:002015-08-16T17:34:19.741-07:00That "fractional flow" link is a joke.
...That "fractional flow" link is a joke.<br /><br />Poor bastard thinks that QE <i>lowers</i> interest rates!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-91551438391081703482015-08-16T16:22:29.337-07:002015-08-16T16:22:29.337-07:00Mills is too clueless to get that “today’s low lev...Mills is too clueless to get that “today’s low levels” were considered sky high in 2004/2005.<br />And that fracking is decades old.<br /><br />Tripling the frack proppant only adds 2% cost to the well? Dream on.<br />An extra 5,000 tons at $100/ton delivered (cheap price!) is a half million dollars, or 5% of a $10 million dollar well (old cost), and more of the newer 7 to 8 million dollar wells.<br />Don’t worry though, big data will solve all. That, and high-powered lasers. /sarc<br /><br />If you look at figure 4 in Rune’s<br />http://fractionalflow.com/2014/10/19/world-crude-oil-production-and-the-oil-price/<br /><br />you’ll see that LTO didn’t really take off until the $100/bbl prices of 2010/2011.<br /><br />Mills is co-author of:<br />The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy<br />in which they claim that energy price doesn’t matter very much.<br />(the reprint was in 2006 – before oil spiked to $147 and destroyed the world’s economy).<br /><br />I agree with a one-star reviewer on Amazon: “insane and sad”.<br /><br />I note a 5 star reviewer glowing about abiotic oil.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-31559181409771053452015-08-16T13:37:32.623-07:002015-08-16T13:37:32.623-07:00Hybrid cars (those with both a gasoline engine and...<i> Hybrid cars (those with both a gasoline engine and electric motors) will become the common vehicle for the future. But different from the hybrids today, these vehicles will use electric motors to drive the wheels all the time (one at each wheel) and no longer contain a traditional drive train. When the battery is low, the engine will come on and generate electricity, but not drive the wheels directly. Not only does this reduce a lot of weight from the car, it also increases its reliability – electric motors and solid state components are significantly more reliable than the mechanical solutions we have today. And also different from today – these cars will support being plugged in at night charging the battery from the power grid rather than from the engine. Why? Because the power from the grid is one-third the cost of charging from the gasoline engine, and the power plants we have in place are more efficient and less polluting than the cars engine as well (especially if the power is from a nuclear plant, but even coal plants put less into the atmosphere than cars do.) </i><br /><br />http://www.sfsignal.com/archives/2006/12/review_the_bottomless_well_by_peter_w_huber_mark_p_mills/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-39325703716387179752015-08-16T04:30:37.988-07:002015-08-16T04:30:37.988-07:00The thesis sounds incredible and compelling.
But...The thesis sounds incredible and compelling. <br /><br />But I've taken Taleb's advice by heart. Sometimes a publication reveals more about the author than the topic. I noticed the study is published by Manhattan Institute. A bit of google legwork showed it's a right-wing/conservative organisation. <br /><br />e.g. <br /><br />http://www.nytimes.com/1997/05/12/nyregion/promoting-its-ideas-the-manhattan-institute-has-nudged-new-york-rightward.html?pagewanted=all<br /><br />http://writetoright.blogspot.com.au/2013/03/how-manhattan-institute-destroyed.html<br /><br /><br />Nothing intrinsically wrong with that. But one gotta question if the essay is tainted with political motives and, thus, distorting the science and the reality.<br /><br />A couple more observations. 1. His endnotes refer to a couple of seekingalpha writeups. That's unusual for something written by a scientist. 2. His emphasis on the power of big-data seems a bit over the top. If you just quoted that bit, I would have mistaken it's a sales pitch by Oracle.<br /><br />I'm skeptical but keep an open mind. His book "The Bottomless Well" looks interesting. I'm tempted to get a copy. Have you read it? Do you think his science is credible?Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14682393043392310140noreply@blogger.com