tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post4019308520672420980..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: Ten Problems With TeslaUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-35115832913371681502018-12-31T10:37:57.534-07:002018-12-31T10:37:57.534-07:00Uh oh, look what happens when luxury OEMs actually...Uh oh, look what happens when luxury OEMs actually decide to compete with $TSLA...<br /><br />https://techcrunch.com/2018/12/28/a-years-worth-of-porsche-taycans-are-already-reserved-mostly-by-tesla-ownersAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-21574932394473836252018-12-27T21:35:43.270-07:002018-12-27T21:35:43.270-07:00More thoughts regarding low on cash:
- unpaid ven...More thoughts regarding low on cash:<br /><br />- unpaid vendors / lawsuits / tax liens<br />- interest / cash balance (compare over time, adjusted for T-bill yields)<br />- not registering vehiclesCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-22871212104844574712018-12-14T02:33:09.670-07:002018-12-14T02:33:09.670-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05720696261939618294noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-36626673800738096972018-12-13T13:59:20.125-07:002018-12-13T13:59:20.125-07:00Here's how a fraud like this could have worked...Here's how a fraud like this could have worked:<br /><br />In order to keep COGS low, there are certain components and/or certain vendors that never enter the accounting system. (Hypothetically, Hota Industrial Manufacturing.) You order widgets on credit, they ship, you use them, but you never enter the invoice / accrue the liability.<br /><br />The only problem with this - how do you pay them? The auditors will notice funds being disbursed to vendors that aren't in the books. And you have to pay them eventually.<br /><br />Maybe you pay them by making it look like you are paying a different vendor that is in the books (Hypothetically, SHW). <br /><br />Three problems with that:<br /><br />*You'll never be able to get current on all of the different vendor (SHW's) invoices, or it will look like you have a credit balance with them. (Which would be a red flag.) But if you are always months behind in paying your vendors, this will not be a problem.<br />*It will be hard to match up payment amounts to the secret supplier with the different vendor's invoices. This is where a constant practice of disputing invoices, asking for retroactive discounts, etc. muddies the waters.<br />*When auditors send A/P balance confirms to the different vendor, it will not match what you have in the fake set of official books. Again, blame billing disputes, disorganization, and so forth. Maybe your auditors are lazy or overwhelmed and don't check this area very carefully. Maybe you scream at the vendor about delaying your audits and they just stop responding to the balance confirms. Maybe you are careful to do this with Asian suppliers: "sorry we don't have phones at the factory," or "no one here speaks English".<br /><br />It's messy but it fits the facts at least as well as an "embezzlement" where the embezzler is not actually getting paid.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-77249085427459040792018-12-13T04:14:45.229-07:002018-12-13T04:14:45.229-07:00You don't think the WHOMPY WHEELS are a major ...You don't think the WHOMPY WHEELS are a major concern?<br /><br />SlaughterPilot?<br /><br />Oh well.........<br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16412076663910985721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-4067008295973953722018-12-12T13:36:08.887-07:002018-12-12T13:36:08.887-07:00Hi tjameson52, I have thought about this as well.
...Hi tjameson52, I have thought about this as well.<br /><br />The strangest part of all of this is that SHW makes electric oil pumps, which is important but not particularly critical or interesting (think lug nuts holding tires onto the car). Also, the dollar amount seems pretty small to send poor Salil to jail for 10 years (!) (Jesus, Michael Cohen got three).<br /><br />I have two theories: <br /><br />1) FBI wants Salil's co-operation/information for a totally unrelated matter in Tesla. Parelukar got a little cute in the negotiations, so, the FBI stumbles across this by accident and rattles his cage with it. Apparently if you're charged with something like this, you appear in court wearing the orange jumpsuit, shackled at hands and foot; if I were him I'd sing like a bird. <br /><br />2) What struck me was the routine manner in which Salil executed his fraud, and Tesla AP failing to flag this transaction as obviously suspicious. This was not elaborate stuff. Perhaps what Salil did was routine, perhaps systematized (?) within Tesla. I imagine a crock where Tesla routinely pays the wrong vendor (net 90 terms), tells the new vendor "ops we'll have to wait to reverse the transaction, old vendor isn't cooperating!" (another 60 days), finally re-queues the payment. Good for cash. Also, in GAAP terms in the above situation, Tesla has i) legitimate cancellation obligations to SHW & ii) new payments due to Hota for materials already received. It has made one payment (to the wrong party). Tesla has recognized expenses probably once, will in theory get a refund from SHW, will pay Hota at some point. ^All these manual adjustments and payments open opportunities to move expenses between reporting periods, especially ahead of large capital raises essential to keeping the company solvent.<br /><br />All of this is conjecture. But there's SOMETHING going on behind the scenes, and it's unlikely to be innocuous. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-58536991871676002612018-12-12T12:27:28.017-07:002018-12-12T12:27:28.017-07:00Can you expand on your Parulekar theory more?
If ...Can you expand on your Parulekar theory more?<br /><br />If both Hota and SHW invoices were booked (credit A/P), then so was the cost (debit side). The subsequent payment wouldn't change anything at the financial statement level (credit cash, debit A/P), it would just be an issue that the wrong vendor's A/P was cleared on the underlying books. Don't see how this transaction (in isolation at least) understates A/P or cost.<br /><br />I caveat all this with the fact I am a TSLA bear and I agree with 90%+ of everything else you write in this post.tjameson52https://www.blogger.com/profile/07580914833853873963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-22769735791374775162018-12-07T11:17:37.453-07:002018-12-07T11:17:37.453-07:00"Here's the latest: 441 (and counting) $T..."Here's the latest: 441 (and counting) $TSLA/SolarCity/Elon Musk legal actions in Excel TSV format."<br /><br />http://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tsla/lawsuits.txtCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.com