tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post5179868547878067823..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: Review of Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas TalebUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-83733117699123297272018-07-02T19:31:23.654-07:002018-07-02T19:31:23.654-07:00Agree that each bubble is hitting harder.
Compar...Agree that each bubble is hitting harder. <br /><br />Compare the planning of our mixed economy by the Federal Reserve to a new airplane pilot:<br /><br />http://www.boldmethod.com/learn-to-fly/maneuvers/how-to-avoid-over-controlling-your-aircraft-on-final-approach/<br /><br />So the oscillations are getting wilder.<br /><br />And does anybody remember, anymore, goofy Christian Scientist Henry Paulson on his knees begging Nancy Pelosi for a bailout? CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-6232803819965479052018-07-02T19:23:27.742-07:002018-07-02T19:23:27.742-07:00Thanks MP. For some reason I haven't been gett...Thanks MP. For some reason I haven't been getting notified of comments. Odd.<br /><br />Hope you like the Links and Books Read posts as well.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-7240707175222652212018-06-19T21:59:39.797-07:002018-06-19T21:59:39.797-07:00Excellent post. Been a while since you've penn...Excellent post. Been a while since you've penned one of your own missives. I've missed them. :)<br /><br />A few thoughts:<br />1) Each bubble hit the broader economy harder than the one before it (and you could even add the S&L crisis to this series). I'm not sure what they're going to call the next one -- the Central Bank bubble, the Fiat bubble, the everything bubble -- but if you agree those names are likely indicative for the leading contenders, it's going to be nasty indeed.<br /><br />2) When it does hit, it's going to lead to massive stagnation. I don't think anything is going to clear. Unlike '08, with rates so low, I think a lot of mortgages will probably continue to be serviced, but incomes won't be there for the next round of buyers, especially if rates go up. There's going to be a lot of zombie owners: they can't afford to downsize or move, but neither can they fully afford their mortgage and property taxes.<br /><br />3) As convincing as I find your A-B scenarios, I think it falls on deaf ears for anyone not already convinced. Most investors today, and Boomers in particular, are loathe to over-think the markets. Their A: the Markets always go up -- even after unarguably massive bubbles like the dot-com and housing, after a couple years they bottom and start going up again. Their B: this can only end in massive inflation, so what better asset class than equities?Midwest Petenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-76481494076098752972018-06-16T02:57:26.902-07:002018-06-16T02:57:26.902-07:00I certainly often feel I have a lot of bad luck.I certainly often feel I have a lot of bad luck.eahilfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11917658744700868462noreply@blogger.com