tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post558036162957123356..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: "Molycorp Bonds Drop to All-Time Low as Quarterly Loss Widens" $MCPUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-5126550818787511032014-11-08T22:11:04.289-07:002014-11-08T22:11:04.289-07:00The commodity supercycle looks oooover. Done!!!
ht...The commodity supercycle looks oooover. Done!!!<br />http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DBC#{%22range%22%3A%22max%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22}<br /><br />This was great:<br />http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2014/11/job-security-in-usa-new-record.html<br /><br />One of the things I remember about 2006 was how flush everyone seemed, especially the proles. <br /><br />At an exurban Home Depot today, the place was packed. And they even had oodles of employees. Not the usual condition where you can't find an employee to cut your lumber.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-72634979612922371862014-11-08T02:44:43.600-07:002014-11-08T02:44:43.600-07:00CP,
Fascinating!
the heuristic, “gold company=in...CP,<br /><br />Fascinating!<br /><br /><i>the heuristic, “gold company=inflation hedge” did not provide the returns that Newmont Mining shareholders may have expected during that period.</i><br /><br />This brings me to yet another Mark Twain quote.<br /><br /><i>History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes.</i><br /><br />Further, both songs (commodity bull markets) lasted about a decade. While it is possible that the commodity bull market could reignite shortly, the odds seem low to me.<br /><br />And when it comes to silver in particular, that fat lady left the stage @ $48.70 per ounce. It's going to take a great deal of effort to get her to sing an encore @ $50 any time soon. Possible (nearly anything is possible), but extremely unlikely.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-29443879388986725682014-11-07T11:35:17.634-07:002014-11-07T11:35:17.634-07:00Horizon Kinetics wrote an essay on this exact topi...Horizon Kinetics wrote an essay on this exact topic:<br /><br /><i>"we would pose the following question: Should you have bought<br />Newmont Mining, a gold mining company, in 1970, knowing with certainty the impending inflation?"</i><br /><br />http://www.horizonkinetics.com/docs/Horizon_Commentary_May_2010.pdfCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-57800405932749067332014-11-07T11:33:19.847-07:002014-11-07T11:33:19.847-07:00Yes, not many resource companies are able to gener...Yes, not many resource companies are able to generate good shareholder returns over time. They seem to fall in love with a commodity when it's at peak price (WLT), and they buy expensive properties when they should be selling.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-25441406957684892962014-11-07T03:10:23.841-07:002014-11-07T03:10:23.841-07:00Refused to give an guidance on volumes.
Wow.
In ...<i>Refused to give an guidance on volumes.</i><br /><br />Wow.<br /><br />In 2004, Barrons ran an article on Newmont Mining. It was just full of interesting reasons why people should own the stock.<br /><br />At the time, I was trying to choose between owning the miners or owning the actual physical gold and silver. I opted for the latter.<br /><br />Why? I was reminded of Mark Twain's joke.<br /><br /><i>'A mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing over it.'</i><br /><br />Seriously. Since my former company experienced a massive accounting scandal and I was looking for safety in an uncertain world, I opted to follow Mark Twain's advice. In 2006, I sold for a 50% profit.<br /><br />Newmont Mining traded at about $45 in 2004. As I write this, it trades at $18.20. 60% loss (not counting meager dividends)!<br /><br />That's what could have happened if I had chosen a different path.<br /><br />Funny how the seemingly smallest little details can make such a huge difference over time. Whew!<br /><br />And don't even get me started on those who bought silver @ $45 an ounce. They call it commodity "speculation" for a reason.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com