tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post5955348327677355126..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: What Intellectual Progress Did I Make In The 2010s?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-13505689585365644572022-06-21T17:47:38.336-07:002022-06-21T17:47:38.336-07:00Everywhere I have worked, the organization’s hirin...<i><b>Everywhere I have worked, the organization’s hiring processes were tilted in favor of experience over intelligence. Interviews include behavioral questions or assessments of specific skills. Rarely is anyone on the hiring loop running problem-solving sessions that require the candidate to demonstrate how they might deal with the real-world challenges they will encounter in the workplace.</b></i><br /><br />https://marketingbs.substack.com/p/marketingbs-a-review-of-talentCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-69553840181224582532022-02-07T21:00:38.114-07:002022-02-07T21:00:38.114-07:00Scott Alexander (Siskind) got married:
Our first ...Scott Alexander (Siskind) got married:<br /><br /><i>Our first date, we talked about Singapore’s child tax credits, which gave me advanced notice of where her mind was at. Our second date, we talked about category formation in borderline personality disorder, which later became this post. Our third date, we talked about why Inuit suicide rates were so high, which later became this post.<br /><br />Then COVID hit. We switched our dates to a Minecraft virtual world, where we built a house together. At the time, I completely missed the kabbalistic significance of this.<br /><br />I don’t usually talk about my personal life on here. But I feel like I owe you guys this one, because, well, some of you have been reading this blog a long time. And some of my earliest posts (eg) were me complaining about the dating world, and how tough it was to meet anybody or even to stay sane. And you guys were kind to me, and commiserated with me, and shared your own experiences. I feel an obligation to check in with the rest of you, to celebrate those of you who have also succeeded and empathize with those of you who haven’t yet.</i><br />https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/theres-a-time-for-everyoneCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-47976411364123276292022-02-07T20:59:15.217-07:002022-02-07T20:59:15.217-07:00You could argue this represents a failure on my pa...<i>You could argue this represents a failure on my part: the zeitgeist has caught up to what I knew in 2015, but I haven’t learned new things to keep me ahead of the zeitgeist. Seems plausible. Half of what I know, I know from the Less Wrong Sequences; the other half, from a basic medical school education. But nobody else explains things quite like Eliezer, and I’m sure as heck not going back to med school.</i><br />https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-do-i-suckCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-30302239497881963662021-03-04T05:05:42.602-07:002021-03-04T05:05:42.602-07:00Great post! Thanks for sharing! Great post! Thanks for sharing! Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03415270700196830621noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-37087069448182328292021-03-04T05:05:15.585-07:002021-03-04T05:05:15.585-07:00Great post! Thanks for sharing!Great post! Thanks for sharing!Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03415270700196830621noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-50737340659471693352021-03-02T16:19:57.662-07:002021-03-02T16:19:57.662-07:00Prechter and Hussman have a lot of interesting obs...Prechter and Hussman have a lot of interesting observations.<br /><br />But their mental models have a similar feature, which is that Everything is Correlated and It's All the Same Market.<br /><br />Lyall's theory that bubbles result in anti-bubbles is more nuanced and subtle.<br /><br />It reminds me of the conclusion from the prediction contest experiment - that the course of events resists easy black and white characterizations.<br /><br />If Lyall's theory is true, it means that a high-agency approach to looking for opportunity will pay off. And it means that Prechter & Hussman are wallowing in low agency frustration.<br /><br />I thought of a logical reason for a Newtonian anti-bubble reaction to bubbles. Besides the liquidity/redemption dynamics of money chasing hot funds, the investment theses underlying the bubble and anti-bubble investments are in conflict.<br /><br />If Tesla could make enough money selling electric vehicles to justify a trillion dollar valuation, there would probably indeed be big problems for crude oil and pipelines.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-39598783295942973822021-03-01T13:41:57.083-07:002021-03-01T13:41:57.083-07:00This was an excellent post. I was about to be all ...This was an excellent post. I was about to be all cynical and black-pilled when I read the headline and intro paragraphs. Thankfully, your first point is both right and set the right tone.<br /><br />It's a good question everyone should ask themselves: Compared to the last decade, what do I know now, that I didn't know then.<br /><br />If there's not one thing that immediately jumps to mind, and you don't have least a couple other non-trivial things, you're probably not a high agency person.<br /><br />I'm going to work on a more lengthy reply to comment with because I think this post deserves it, but one thing that stands out is I definitely under-estimated the breadth of low-agency normies among us. In all seriousness, while I don't under-estimate how dumb the average person can be, I did under-estimate how passive the vast majority of people are.<br /><br />To put it into standard deviations and IQ terms, I'm feeling like anyone less than +2 sigma is almost worthless. Well, that's 98% of the population. I could do the math more carefully, but crucially it means 80% of the people you're used to considering intelligent and useful (+1 sigma population), are actually not. Seeing it now, I gotta admit that it does have ring of truth to it in my experience.AllanFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-24164808331711760392021-03-01T13:33:41.088-07:002021-03-01T13:33:41.088-07:00Outstanding post!Outstanding post!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-19482815638885928982021-03-01T12:54:56.619-07:002021-03-01T12:54:56.619-07:00There is some Biblical wisdom in your post:
For i...There is some Biblical wisdom in your post:<br /><br />For it will be like a man going on a journey, who called his servants and entrusted to them his property. To one he gave five talents, to another two, to another one, to each according to his ability. Then he went away. He who had received the five talents went at once and traded with them, and he made five talents more. So also he who had the two talents made two talents more. But he who had received the one talent went and dug in the ground and hid his master's money. Now after a long time the master of those servants came and settled accounts with them. And he who had received the five talents came forward, bringing five talents more, saying, ‘Master, you delivered to me five talents; here, I have made five talents more.’ His master said to him, ‘Well done, good and faithful servant. You have been faithful over a little; I will set you over much. Enter into the joy of your master.’ And he also who had the two talents came forward, saying, ‘Master, you delivered to me two talents; here, I have made two talents more.’ His master said to him, ‘Well done, good and faithful servant. You have been faithful over a little; I will set you over much. Enter into the joy of your master.’ He also who had received the one talent came forward, saying, ‘Master, I knew you to be a hard man, reaping where you did not sow, and gathering where you scattered no seed, so I was afraid, and I went and hid your talent in the ground. Here, you have what is yours.’ <br /><br />Matthew 25 - The Parable of the TalentsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com