tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post6303253419386835034..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: Thursday Roundup: Oil and Commodity Crash, Amazon's Capital Leases and Free Cash Flow, Low Volatility AnomalyUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-27235228591346802052014-12-11T20:25:26.922-07:002014-12-11T20:25:26.922-07:00What's easy to make, is also easy to lose.
Ve...<i>What's easy to make, is also easy to lose.</i><br /><br />Very important concept. CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-42152155484923976152014-12-11T19:37:31.190-07:002014-12-11T19:37:31.190-07:00Be careful with commodity mean reversion trades......<i>Be careful with commodity mean reversion trades...</i><br /><br />As we've both discussed numerous times, think silver!<br /><br />Although silver rose to $45, I have absolutely no desire to buy it at $17.<br /><br />I sold physical silver in 2006 for a 50% gain at just over $10. I owned a ton of it. It took less than 2 years to get that gain. What's easy to make, is also easy to lose.<br /><br />If I didn't like it at $10 in 2006, then why would I want it at $12 (crudely adjusted for inflation) in 2014?<br /><br />I've been bearish on our long-term economy since 2004 and continue to be. So being bearish can't be the reason. Nothing's changed there. I don't see how silver can protect a person when we know what oil's just been through. I doubt it is the only commodity that can do it. If nothing else, it takes energy to get other commodities out of the ground. Cheaper energy, and well, you know.<br /><br />Since the peak, <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SLV" rel="nofollow">SLV</a> has had falling knife syndrome written all over it. Where it stops nobody knows.<br /><br />And why did I own silver in the first place? Unlike housing, I bought it solely with the intent to sell it to someone else someday. I had no use for it personally and I knew I never would. That's a dangerous reason to own something. It better at least be darned cheap!Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com