tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post7015527074348122695..comments2017-11-15T16:40:54.137-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: Scoring the Credit Bubble Stocks 2015 Reader PredictionsCPnoreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-57574360457205860922016-01-05T17:32:47.982-07:002016-01-05T17:32:47.982-07:00Thanks Stag Mark for replying back. I hadn't ...Thanks Stag Mark for replying back. I hadn't seen the new contest rules when I posted and this contest looks much more interesting to me. <br /><br />Just like your interest rate prediction example, I thought in those same terms but in relation to S&P500. There was no benefit to say 80% confidence S&P would be above 1500 vs choosing a lower number like 1000. Josh Hnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-1291279181766333022016-01-03T20:58:29.738-07:002016-01-03T20:58:29.738-07:00Phase One of new contest!
http://www.creditbubble...Phase One of new contest!<br /><br />http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2016/01/credit-bubble-stocks-2016-reader.htmlCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-18951250704660102202016-01-03T20:49:49.972-07:002016-01-03T20:49:49.972-07:00Anonymous,
Yes, I actually created a chart back w...Anonymous,<br /><br />Yes, I actually created <a href="http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2014/12/predictions-for-2015-with-80-confidence.html?m=1" rel="nofollow">a chart</a> back when I originally made the predictions. It shows the 41% chance. Note that 4 out of 5 is the most likely outcome though, and therefore the optimal result one would expect if one is truly making 80% confidence predictions on 5 independent things.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-63988114371326278772016-01-03T19:13:28.364-07:002016-01-03T19:13:28.364-07:00Mark, if each prediction has an 80% chance of bein...Mark, if each prediction has an 80% chance of being correct, then the odds of getting 4 out of 5 right are about 41%...assuming each prediction is independent of the others.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-41482279544103871802016-01-03T15:49:36.416-07:002016-01-03T15:49:36.416-07:00As a side note and as a Seahawks fan, I would not ...As a side note and as a Seahawks fan, I would not have predicted with 80% confidence that we'd be winning by 24 points over Arizona with 2 minutes left to play in the first half right now.<br /><br />I'd definitely be willing to make a wager at even odds that we'll win this game right now, but I am not 100% confident. I could be at least 80% confident though.<br /><br />Go figure. :)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-4128605711423353062016-01-03T15:42:24.584-07:002016-01-03T15:42:24.584-07:00Josh H,
For what it is worth, I tried to make eac...Josh H,<br /><br />For what it is worth, I tried to make each prediction with a 20% chance that I would be wrong.<br /><br />For example, if a number was chosen at random from 1 to 5, then I could make a prediction with 80% confidence that it would not be the number 2. There would be 4 chances out of 5 that it would be a 1, 3, 4, or a 5 instead. If asked to make a prediction with 100% confidence, then I could have predicted that it would not be the number 6, since 6 would have been impossible.<br /><br />If I had known the goal was to get 5 out of 5 predictions correct, then I would have made predictions I was much more confident about.<br /><br />For example, I could have predicted that the Fed would not raise interest rates to 300% in 2015. While still possible of course, I was at least 99.999% confident that they wouldn't.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-76161821914059546322016-01-03T13:36:52.724-07:002016-01-03T13:36:52.724-07:00Thank you for analyzing and posting the results. ...Thank you for analyzing and posting the results. One of the thoughts I had was how did someone get to an 80% confidence level? I did not participate but most of my ideas were focused on 100% confidence and I wasn't sure how to be only 80% confident.Josh Hhttp://seekingalpha.com/user/697570/profilenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-36017646008918446272016-01-02T23:19:08.208-07:002016-01-02T23:19:08.208-07:00Thanks for putting this together. These are fascin...Thanks for putting this together. These are fascinating to read, and I think a collection of them will be even more educational still.innerscorecardhttp://innerscorecard.conoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-69708645077451880252016-01-02T23:12:44.740-07:002016-01-02T23:12:44.740-07:00In my opinion, the winner should have gotten 4 out...In my opinion, the winner should have gotten 4 out of 5 right. That was my goal but perhaps I misunderstood the contest.<br /><br />The predictions were supposed to be made with 80% confidence. If you make a million predictions with 80% confidence and get every single one of them right, then people will start to assume that you are making predictions with 100% confidence.<br /><br />That said, I am impressed with the winners. These were not "the sky will remain blue on sunny clear days" predictions intended to guarantee victory. Nicely done! :)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-18309984956440949732016-01-02T18:46:40.262-07:002016-01-02T18:46:40.262-07:00Sure, I'm looking forward to it.Sure, I'm looking forward to it.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-51558384397097133672016-01-02T14:19:33.722-07:002016-01-02T14:19:33.722-07:00Hope you'll participate for 2016. I have a muc...Hope you'll participate for 2016. I have a much more interesting idea for this contest.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-78948095718165823482016-01-02T14:18:37.081-07:002016-01-02T14:18:37.081-07:00Yeah, so he got the oil one and the Euro one right...<i>Yeah, so he got the oil one and the Euro one right. <br /></i><br /><br />My bad, for some reason I thought GM was over 50 and you were counting that but not the euro.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-31191541464872121872016-01-02T13:57:17.167-07:002016-01-02T13:57:17.167-07:00Yeah, so he got the oil one and the Euro one right...Yeah, so he got the oil one and the Euro one right. <br /><br />The high ROE prediction was pretty vague. If the prediction had been, "a significant weakness in the high ROE investing model is exposed" that would've been A+. Since the prediction was basically the opposite of that, I think it's wrong.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-39115037113963804512016-01-02T12:22:08.483-07:002016-01-02T12:22:08.483-07:00Euro trades down to $1.15 ($1.24 today)
Euro wel...<i>Euro trades down to $1.15 ($1.24 today)<br /><br /> Euro well below $1.15. 2/5.</i><br /><br />I think he meant it would trade at or below 1.15, which was a pretty good prediction.<br /><br /><br /><i>This is a tough one - did high ROE stocks remain en-vogue? I say no thanks to VRX. </i><br /><br />I think compounders/quality businesses/outsider CEOs have been popular for so long that they won't go out of favor until there are more blowups. Ocwen and Valeant have inspired some cognitive dissonance among value investors, but right now these guys have too much invested--financially, emotionally, and reputationally--to abandon the "quality business" narrative.Jamesnoreply@blogger.com