tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post7417538592336516816..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: Sahara Investing Looks at Conrad Industries ($CNRD)Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-76165476812267522662013-01-07T13:25:51.481-07:002013-01-07T13:25:51.481-07:00Thanks, for some reason I don't think I had ev...Thanks, for some reason I don't think I had ever seen your blog before. I'll start following.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-16942579543188496472013-01-07T12:49:41.163-07:002013-01-07T12:49:41.163-07:00I need to spend more time reviewing before I get c...I need to spend more time reviewing before I get comfortable with some other microcaps. I don't own any SODI but it is what I think is the best one based on blog posts. <br /><br />I am not the turn over rocks person like a lot of the blogs out there. My list of names are all names that other blogs have mentioned (I am going to update the blogs I follow on my site shortly) rather then list them all here.<br /><br />Only 1 small cap that I feel like I turned over is AZC. I was trying to understand SLW better and was looking at some of the deals they made. AZC has some risk as their only copper mine is being permitted (in Arizona). Environmentalists want new studies, delays, etc but I think permitted is complete by March. Delays have disappointed in the past as some observers thought the company would be permitted in 2010. It is one of those trades that you put 1% in because it could be a zero but I believe that there is a 90% chance the stock makes you 500%.<br /><br />You could do this same type of trade with IMH preferred. (IMPHO/IMPHP) Lawsuit about stripping the rights illegally hopefully prevails restoring preferred rights, settled for a decent common stock exchange, or cash buyout. If not the other out is the company is taken out (preferreds still par $25).Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12028228587020987588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-59716990067654426112013-01-07T12:46:05.567-07:002013-01-07T12:46:05.567-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12028228587020987588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-49433708738972357492013-01-07T12:33:23.888-07:002013-01-07T12:33:23.888-07:00What micro caps besides SODI?
I think these are ...What micro caps besides SODI? <br /><br />I think these are one of the best ways to get an edge if you are small.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-91254437092557139672013-01-07T12:21:47.304-07:002013-01-07T12:21:47.304-07:00Probably another 5-10 small cap / micro caps that ...Probably another 5-10 small cap / micro caps that I like but I haven't had the time yet to finish my research on them. An example would be SODI which has been blogged about extensively but I need to spend 3-4 hours going through everything to get comfortable to buy. Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12028228587020987588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-20457700316927644972013-01-07T12:18:28.026-07:002013-01-07T12:18:28.026-07:00I would not sell at $22 except from a risk and por...I would not sell at $22 except from a risk and portfolio standpoint. I would trim the position (not sell all of it). It is just not letting the position become too big. <br /><br />I mostly stay in the large cap space (and use options, like cc, or cash covered puts etc) but when an opportunity like CNRD comes along, you can't pass up. I am not sure which value blog I saw the idea first. Pretty much every blog I read has mentioned it and/or bought it. <br /><br />I like TRN in the same space as well as the addition of railcars (especially for energy products). I like CKH also overlapping in the space. <br /><br />I am a fan of copper and am bullish on copper like FCX. I just don't see copper going below 3. So again free option on copper actually going higher. <br /><br />I like some beaten down oil/gas names like NFX, SD. I think that the stocks are worth the oil alone and it is a free option on nat gas rebounding. Probably would like CHK (I have owned the preferreds that you mentioned in the past) but it CHK is so hard to understand. <br /><br />The only other small cap stock I like is IMH (and the preferred as a small risk/reward position)<br /> http://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/<br /><br />I made a new commitment to work on my blog in 2013. I am definitely not a good writer but maybe I ll eventually get to all my positions :) and also become a better writer.Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12028228587020987588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-20355768026854010572013-01-07T11:58:28.966-07:002013-01-07T11:58:28.966-07:00That's pretty similar to how I got involved.
...That's pretty similar to how I got involved. <br /><br />However, in the past several months, I have reassessed even higher after looking at the industry color and seeing that this is a superb business that will have several years of record demand. <br /><br />I wouldn't sell at $22.<br /><br />What else do you like?CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-29455832718600453762013-01-07T11:40:26.518-07:002013-01-07T11:40:26.518-07:00I started buying CNRD in March 2011 and continued ...I started buying CNRD in March 2011 and continued to add as I got more comfortable. At first I thought CNRD was an okay business with a low PE and net cash. At some point, not sure when (I think around March 2012) I realized the company had a superb business. <br /><br />I think CNRD is worth conservatively around $27 but probably closer to $30 (without any BP claims settlement). <br /><br />From a risk management standpoint, I am looking to trim the position near $22. I haven't sold any yet, but I put in a limit order when all the special dividend announcements were happening, hoping that CNRD would rally significantly with any announcement. Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12028228587020987588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-66640249116725132452013-01-07T11:31:44.223-07:002013-01-07T11:31:44.223-07:00How long have you owned? At what price would you s...How long have you owned? At what price would you sell?CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-74707633436642031672013-01-07T10:00:20.748-07:002013-01-07T10:00:20.748-07:00Well Capex back down this year could be a small as...Well Capex back down this year could be a small assumption. Granted I have full trust in management, otherwise I wouldn't still be long CNRD. Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12028228587020987588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-42159648462982793192013-01-06T23:03:09.217-07:002013-01-06T23:03:09.217-07:00Right, plus $5mm of that was to buy a parcel of la...Right, plus $5mm of that was to buy a parcel of land next to one of their LA shipyards. <br /><br />They are very very careful about capex and had been deferring capex when possible during the depression. <br /><br />So, 2012 looks to me like a catchup on maintenance capex and then it should be down to regular low levels this year.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-14370319776036196762013-01-06T22:13:36.503-07:002013-01-06T22:13:36.503-07:00They did announce a big capital spend of 20MM for ...They did announce a big capital spend of 20MM for 2012. At the time it seemed pretty big. In hindsight, it now looks like a pretty smart move. This was all basically funded out of existing cash flow. <br /><br />It was unclear to me whether you were suggesting that there has not been any big CapEx (granted it was growth CapEx)? It is possible they announce another large spend again this year. Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12028228587020987588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-6175065246234936592013-01-06T18:50:34.641-07:002013-01-06T18:50:34.641-07:00"[I]t would appear that provided you can secu...<i>"[I]t would appear that provided you can secure the barges, you acquire greater flexibility by transferring crude from rail onto barges to complete its journey to refineries. The extent to which this becomes more common would appear to be more constrained at present by fleet capacity and weather related constrictions than other considerations such as equipment cost."</i><br /> <br />Thanks, I'll do a FPP about this.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-60025972865190004302013-01-06T14:08:31.600-07:002013-01-06T14:08:31.600-07:00Not sure if you caught this article yet, but here ...Not sure if you caught this article yet, but here is a link to the second part of the article that I posted a month ago in a comments section:<br /><br />http://www.rbnenergy.com/good-year-for-the-barges-part-2<br /><br />I especially like the last paragraph, stating that most tank barge use is complementary to rail crude movement, as opposed to competing against rail for traffic. This could mean that the tank barge movement is more sustainable than I originally anticipated, in that rail offers flexibility advantages over building pipelines in many cases. Therefore, crude rail traffic may stay relatively strong even as pipelines come online. As such, tank barge demand would also maintain its niche in the refinery supply chain. Jack Sherlockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18444609197763124734noreply@blogger.com