tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post9046484495563172138..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: 2018 Prediction ContestUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-58040328281506081212019-01-03T13:49:20.006-07:002019-01-03T13:49:20.006-07:00http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2019/01/credit-b...http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2019/01/credit-bubble-stocks-2018-prediction.htmlCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-8923815720375837882018-01-08T18:40:42.246-07:002018-01-08T18:40:42.246-07:00More shitcoins with over $1b market caps than toda...More shitcoins with over $1b market caps than today?<br /><br />Another year with no commercial jet fatal plane crashes?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-58541594122052584892018-01-08T12:43:48.281-07:002018-01-08T12:43:48.281-07:00PRESIDENT TRUMP STILL PRESIDENT AT END OF YEAR
PUT...PRESIDENT TRUMP STILL PRESIDENT AT END OF YEAR<br />PUTIN, (WHOEVER RUNS IRAN), OR XI NOT IN CHARGE AT END OF YEAR<br />XXXX NUMBER OF TESLA MODEL 3 DELIVERED IN 2018 (NOT SURE THE BEST OVER UNDER.... 35K?)<br />SOMETHING ABOUT AI OR QUANTUM COMPUTING OVERCOMING A BIG HURDLE <br />TWITTER STILL PUBLIC<br />WE FIND OUT WHO SATOSHI NAKAMOTO IS<br />EAGLES WIN THE SUPER BOWL<br />EITHER OPRAH OR THE STARBUCKS GUY ANNOUNCE THEY ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING FOR OFFICE (TOO SOON?)<br />PAUL RYAN DEFEATED?<br />SOMETHING ABOUT MUELLER INVESTIGATION<br />SOMETHING ABOUT SHLD, LIKE "DOESN'T GO BK"<br />SOMETHING ABOUT PABRAI OR TILSON (TILSON OPENS A NEW FUND???)<br />SOMETHING ABOUT NORTH KOREA<br />SOMETHING ABOUT A RECESSION BEING CAUSED IN ANY ASIAN COUNTRY DUE TO CRYPTOCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-71667263463039805792018-01-07T22:08:09.990-07:002018-01-07T22:08:09.990-07:00- Elon Musk tweets (tweet replies not counted) abo...- Elon Musk tweets (tweet replies not counted) about cryptocurrency;<br />- Berkshire Hathaway purchases a cryptocurrency-related company;<br />- Vanguard makes a cryptocurrency product available;<br />- Dennis Gartman purchases a cryptocurrency;<br />- The 10-year/2-year US Treasury spread ends the year higher than it began;<br />- S&P 500 has a positive total return for the year;<br />- Nikkei has a positive total return for the year;<br />- Euro Stoxx 50 has a positive total return for the year;<br />- US 30-year treasuries have a positive total return for the year;<br />- XIV has a positive total return for the year;<br />- WTI crude oil price ends the year higher than it began;<br />- Case–Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index ends the year higher than it began;<br />- Democrats retake the U.S. House after the November midterm elections;<br />- Democrats retake the U.S. Senate after the November midterm elections;<br />- President Trump has a higher Gallup polling average at the end of the year than the beginning.innerscorecardhttps://twitter.com/inner_scorecardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-30643340999256379302018-01-07T12:36:18.614-07:002018-01-07T12:36:18.614-07:00For 2018 events, some ideas are:
- bitcoin is no l...For 2018 events, some ideas are:<br />- bitcoin is no longer the cryptocurrency with the largest market cap<br />- cryptocurrency-based company raises money / IPOs at a 10B+ post-money valuation<br />- IPO of decacorn company occurs<br />- Core CPI exceeds 2.5%<br />- US company issues debt at negative spread (in USD)<br />- Fed raises rates 4 times in 2018<br />- Fed lowers rates at some point in 2018<br />- spread between 90-day treasury and 10-year treasury falls below 50 bps at some point<br />- JPYUSD below 100<br />- US Dollar Index falls below 80<br />- N Korea enters agreement with either US or S Korea to demilitarize / limit arms development<br />- AAPL falls below 150<br />- 6.0+ earthquake hits Bay Area or LA area<br />- XIV positive for the year<br />- 4 or more of the top 10 most viewed youtube music videos are songs sung in SpanishBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-38164499934087024092018-01-06T17:57:33.187-07:002018-01-06T17:57:33.187-07:0060/40 (ie VBINX) has negative total return for the...60/40 (ie VBINX) has negative total return for the year<br /><br />Risk parity strategy suffers a 20% drawdown (ie AQRIX PDREX) <br /><br />A major ($5 bn+) financial fraud is uncovered (Madoff type ie allegedly Bridgewater; fraud is financial of nature, not a corporate/Enron thing)<br /><br />US federal budget deficit for FYE Sept 2018 is larger than prior fiscal yr despite “boom”<br /><br />Cohn, Tillerson, Mnuchin or Mattis out<br /><br />The Wall construction starts<br /><br />Any US govt unit charges a FAANG member with civil or criminal charges (SEC DOJ FTC FCC FEC etc.) <br /><br />A corporate AMT tax aka “the Amazon tax” is approved in the US at the federal level<br /><br />Hillary or Huma are charged with criminal offense/s<br /><br />Amazon makes another major retail acquisition (300+ existing units) (for comp, Whole Foods is at 473 total US and UK per website) <br /><br />Earthquake of XX mag strikes the cont US (figure a good gloom-and-doom addition to the hurricane)<br /><br />George W Bush changes official party reg to Dem<br /><br />Strike/major labor dispute in any major US sports league (nba nfl nhl mlb mls nascar ufc)<br /><br />Final published CPI number in calendar 2018 (nov?) is over 3.5%<br /><br />Add Iran to the “deposed” group<br /><br />At least ten countries announce intent to move their Israel embassy to Jerusalem<br /><br />Fed balance sheet over/under X as of latest data on 12/31/18 (currently $4.45 tn) <br /><br />Worst 2017 S&P 500 sector (XLE energy) is the best total return sector in calendar 2018<br /><br />VIX over 30? at any time during the year<br /><br />3-mo USD Libor over 2.5% at any time (1.69% currently) <br /><br />2018 US vehicle sales are under 2017 vehicle sales (17.2 mm in '17, first decline since GFC)<br /><br />Trudeau or cabinet member resigns bc of/charged w corruption<br /><br />Theresa May is not the UK PM as of 12/31/2018 <br /><br />Prominent “resistance” media personality is hospitalized w psych problems<br /><br />India takes major diplomatic step over H-1B visas (recalls ambassador, puts more onerous visa reqs for US citizens, etc)<br /><br />Federal voter ID law is passed<br /><br />Federal marijuana legalization of any kind passed <br /><br />At least one Dem formally starts an exploratory committee for the 2020 presidential election <br /><br />US exits or modifies NAFTA in a major way<br /><br />FDIC reduces deposit insurance limit<br /><br />Credible Trump assassination attempt by US-born individual/s<br /><br />Putin re-elected in the March election<br /><br />US ends daylight savings time (cute Arizona topic) <br /><br />Federal ban/major curtailment on use of race in college admissions (since it will likely be challenged and stopped, just the order would count) <br /><br />At least one US federal government agency issues a formal warning on vegetable oils Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com