Credit Bubble Stocks

Good stuff! Keep it coming.

2012-05-31T11:13:06.915-07:00

Good stuff! Keep it coming.

Case in point, just after hitting 'Publish'...

2012-05-31T09:53:50.793-07:00

Case in point, just after hitting 'Publish' I saw this headline: [Goldman's] SUMMER PROGRAM APPLICATION POOL WAS BIGGEST EVER"

LFTR isn't being pursued because no one in gov...

2012-05-31T09:49:52.538-07:00

LFTR isn't being pursued because no one in govt is interested in it. Our oil policy ensures we are center stage. Our nuclear policy ensures we are center stage. Both have enormous capital investments that would be virtually worthless if LFTR to come to fruition. (It's not too far different from te mortgage bubble and TBTF in that regard. Wiping equity holders and giving bondholders a haircut was unthinkable. Even though only 1% holds half the wealth, and the bottom 80% holds less than 10 or 20%.) It also allows countries, not the least of which is our own, to turn inward, mind their own business, and let all the various kleptocracies mind theirs.

As for the broader question of why so many rational projects not being pursued, we've lost our national vitality. The NY-DC elite have created something worse than single-party rule, they've created single-mind rule. The original value-creation generation are now 80+ or dead. The Boomers have always been about fighting over the pie we have, and rent-seeking to get themselves a leg-up at the expense of everyone else. The policies and paradigm has infected Gen X & Y, whose best and brightest are overwhelmingly engaged in zero-sum games like HFT and various other forms of Wall St rent-seeking -OR- social media and various other forms of Silicon Valley rent-seeking. That is, when they haven't checked-out entirely with the absolutely non-scalable and ironically unsustainable neo-hippie/urban self-sufficiency movement.

But now I'm sounding like a crank. So I'll stop here. :-)

Why do you think it isn't being pursued? Why...

2012-05-30T22:14:23.417-07:00

Why do you think it isn't being pursued?

Why are so many rational projects not being pursued?

Lotta idiots. A fool and his money, etc.

2012-05-30T14:51:03.689-07:00

Lotta idiots. A fool and his money, etc.

Big (relatively) volume today in the 16 Jun $7 put...

2012-05-30T14:36:08.404-07:00

Big (relatively) volume today in the 16 Jun $7 puts. Large outstanding interest too. What's up with that?

What time-frame are you referring to? In the lon...

2012-05-30T14:04:43.012-07:00

What time-frame are you referring to?

In the long-run, after we're all dead, obviously it kills them. In the short-term, absolutely none. We don't have any functioning reactors, or, so far as I know, designs for functioning reactors. However, if we stopped blowing billions at the DoE on porn, cold-fusion, porn, and pork-barrel projects we might have something in a reasonably short-order.

One thing the 5 & 10 minute videos gloss over is while the LF part of the reactor was built and demonstrated 50 yrs ago, I don't believe the [breeder]TR part has been. On paper it is possible and makes perfect sense, in reality it needs some work put into it the engineering.

Then you have to scale it up while pulling 40 & 50 y.o. solid-fuel uranium reactors off-line. And our coal burners aren't getting any younger either. And that's just the grid. So, whether it hammers coal or nat-gas first, I don't know. I'd have to look into their cost curves, which I've never done.

As for oil, it is a function of our insane national politics and policy. As such, it has the furthest to fall, and maybe pursing LFTR shows a rationality which immediately craters the price of oil. But actually using LFTRs to synthetically generate oil on the order of 20 million barrels per day instead of digging it up seems like it's gonna be the last energy problem we'll solve, not the first.

What difference do you think thorium will make to ...

2012-05-30T13:39:21.530-07:00

What difference do you think thorium will make to other energy prices, if any?

It was a comment to your post from last year.

As for significance, depends. If you find the topic interesting, it includes URLs to 3 different source videos, is a lot less choppy, and covers the details a little bit more clearly. As far an elevator pitch, which is what all these are, about the same.

But like I said in my other comment last year, LFTR won't come from the US. It will come from Japan or China.

Exactly

2012-05-30T10:25:34.830-07:00

Exactly

I don't think so. "How you gonna watch 1...

2012-05-30T10:25:26.725-07:00

I don't think so.

"How you gonna watch 10 minute LFTR when there's a 5 minute LFTR."

Was there anything of significance?

I'd not complain over a buy-out. I'd miss ...

2012-05-29T23:45:31.783-07:00

I'd not complain over a buy-out. I'd miss the nice yield of the preferreds, but having them taken out a par would go a long way to salve that pain.

Nice. Did you end up watching the LFTR in 10 minut...

2012-05-29T23:41:04.011-07:00

Nice. Did you end up watching the LFTR in 10 minutes I linked a while back in a comment?

Short TLT or puts on TLT makes sense. Also, if th...

2012-05-29T17:00:26.514-07:00

Short TLT or puts on TLT makes sense.

Also, if there was any real estate that was not overpriced, buying it now with 30y financing makes sense. I'm not sure what type of real estate this would be, though.

CP anything else besides TLT that you think would ...

2012-05-29T16:56:29.059-07:00

CP anything else besides TLT that you think would be good for the top in treasuries play?

Here we are, five years later. I would've bet...

2012-05-28T21:32:47.791-07:00

Here we are, five years later.

I would've bet money that he would be off the air by now.

He is a total B.S. artist with no substance.

Jim Cramer was spot on in 2007 though.

And when I say spot on, I mean from a heckling perspective.

Not only did he refer to New Century Financial as New City Financial, he did so while trying to tell us that the subrprime mess was "calm". ;)

Well, of course. That is the point of the worthles...

2012-05-28T13:49:42.819-07:00

Well, of course. That is the point of the worthless stock inefficiency.

Presumably they had not checked the bond prices...

2012-05-27T00:17:51.692-07:00
Presumably they had not checked the bond prices.

They most probably don't know that the company has outstanding debt. And wouldn't care or know what to do with that knowledge if they did.

Depends on how bearish you are on the Makena valua...

2012-05-24T09:51:54.417-07:00
Depends on how bearish you are on the Makena valuation.

But the nice thing about bonds trading at 17 is it gives you some leeway to short more.

thanks for the write up - wanted to ask what ratio...

2012-05-24T06:38:23.041-07:00
thanks for the write up - wanted to ask what ratio you would put this trade on? long how much of the convert vs short how much of the common?

thanks again

Yeah, this is for a parent's retirement accoun...

2012-05-23T10:57:28.414-07:00
Yeah, this is for a parent's retirement account. Not so interested in capital gains and very conservative.

Not missing anything, but I actually think those c...

2012-05-23T10:44:03.294-07:00
Not missing anything, but I actually think those calls are underpriced so I would not sell them.

I'm late to this party, but that's probabl...

2012-05-22T23:32:08.820-07:00
I'm late to this party, but that's probably good.

Is my (income-oriented) math right on this one. CHKDG trades at 65, which is conversion parity of 25.23. (65/2.5766). The Jan '13 25 call is trading at 0.83.

so I buy 100 CHKDG, sell 2.5 Jan calls. Stock goes past 25.23, I convert into 257.7 shares, 250 of which get called away from me at $25. I sell my remaining 7.7 shares at 25.23.

But I net $1.50 of option premium, (.83-.23 * 2.5), AND the interest payment of $2.50 for half a year.

so that's $4.00 on $65 for only 6 months, which is an 12.3% yield quasi-annualized.

If the preferred just sits there at 65 and I continue to write calls on the common, I get to keep the entire option premium, or 14.1%

Am I missing something?

They are his own calculations, sadly. Some of the ...

2012-05-22T21:15:31.247-07:00
They are his own calculations, sadly. Some of the stuff was just too dumb to be anyone else's.

Credit Bubble Stocks

Good stuff! Keep it coming.

Case in point, just after hitting 'Publish'...

LFTR isn't being pursued because no one in gov...

Why do you think it isn't being pursued? Why...

Lotta idiots. A fool and his money, etc.

Big (relatively) volume today in the 16 Jun $7 put...

What time-frame are you referring to? In the lon...

What difference do you think thorium will make to ...

Exactly

I don't think so. "How you gonna watch 1...

I'd not complain over a buy-out. I'd miss ...

Nice. Did you end up watching the LFTR in 10 minut...

Short TLT or puts on TLT makes sense. Also, if th...

CP anything else besides TLT that you think would ...

Here we are, five years later. I would've bet...

Jim Cramer was spot on in 2007 though.And when I say spot on, I mean from a heckling perspective.Not only did he refer to New Century Financial as New City Financial, he did so while trying to tell us that the subrprime mess was "calm". ;)

Well, of course. That is the point of the worthles...

Presumably they had not checked the bond prices...

Depends on how bearish you are on the Makena valua...

thanks for the write up - wanted to ask what ratio...

Yeah, this is for a parent's retirement accoun...

Not missing anything, but I actually think those c...

I'm late to this party, but that's probabl...

They are his own calculations, sadly. Some of the ...

Jim Cramer was spot on in 2007 though.

And when I say spot on, I mean from a heckling perspective.

Not only did he refer to New Century Financial as New City Financial, he did so while trying to tell us that the subrprime mess was "calm". ;)