tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Credit Bubble StocksUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8299125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-59616879061797057752024-02-27T07:13:21.581-07:002024-02-27T07:13:21.581-07:00I initially picked BSM as my O&G royalty play ...I initially picked BSM as my O&G royalty play about five years ago due to its huge, diversified acreage. At the time, I did not fully understand all of the differences between it and other royalty companies. It would not be my first choice today, due to its very heavy gas exposure, hedging, and relatively high G&A. But due to tax considerations (dividend recapture), I've stuck with it and continue to read all the quarterly disclosures and CC transcripts and update a fairly simple but historically pretty accurate model for its earnings. On the bright side, following it closely gave me the confidence to buy more when it was very cheap in 2020. I'm not particularly excited about it right now because I think a distribution cut is coming, and I'd rather wait to see if that is correct and to see (and potentially benefit from) the market reaction. KJPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-122089382274568732024-02-26T15:41:29.478-07:002024-02-26T15:41:29.478-07:00If I had to choose long or short:
Long: AMR, AER,...If I had to choose long or short:<br /><br />Long: AMR, AER, LAMR, OKE<br /><br />Short: CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-54044733759098478892024-02-26T15:41:04.336-07:002024-02-26T15:41:04.336-07:00If I had to choose long or short:
Long: MRO, SU, ...If I had to choose long or short:<br /><br />Long: MRO, SU, TPL, BSM, KRP, SFM<br /><br />Short: CHK CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-24170370848737797542024-02-26T15:40:12.836-07:002024-02-26T15:40:12.836-07:00If I had to choose long or short:
Long: ARCH, CVE...If I had to choose long or short:<br /><br />Long: ARCH, CVE, GEL, LAD<br /><br />Short: CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-9620123059737438572024-02-23T14:47:16.310-07:002024-02-23T14:47:16.310-07:00Any reason you follow BSM so closely?Any reason you follow BSM so closely?CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-33404768888201365172024-02-23T14:47:03.365-07:002024-02-23T14:47:03.365-07:00OK, I fixed that.OK, I fixed that.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-60787306612539779372024-02-23T06:54:56.372-07:002024-02-23T06:54:56.372-07:00Black Stone Minerals has $300 million in high yiel...Black Stone Minerals has $300 million in high yield preferred outstanding that wasn't picked up in your EV. They are also very big on maintaining the distribution, rather than varying it with O&G prices. I believe that is one of the reasons they hedge and will continue to do so. <br /><br />Unless there is a very significant rebound in gas prices, 2023 is likely to be the high water mark for cash flow and distributions for awhile. First, 2023 benefited from hedges at prices above $5/MCF. Second, one of the big drillers on their Haynesville acreage (Aethon) is taking a "time out" on its drilling commitments due to low gas prices. That will hit volumes in 2025.<br /><br />Also, the preferred recently reset higher. It's now yielding close to 10%. They chose not to redeem any portion it this year, but if they do when the next window opens up, there may be less capital available for distribution to common units. <br /><br /><br /><br />KJPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-85405455518698414382024-02-15T10:51:10.312-07:002024-02-15T10:51:10.312-07:00If I had to choose long or short:
Long: PREKF, IC...If I <i>had</i> to choose long or short:<br /><br />Long: PREKF, ICE, NRP, XOM, IMO, ENB, EPD, BTU, ALSN, PAG, AN, MPC, MAR, HCC, RGLD<br /><br />Short: FCX, GOLD, CRK, MO, CMG, OXY, KHCCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-75347385332572651522024-02-12T22:27:07.459-07:002024-02-12T22:27:07.459-07:00the only drugs I can think of off hand that would ...the only drugs I can think of off hand that would cause such tics are anti psychotics often prescribed for bipolar disorderAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-44536964939986432472024-02-09T11:44:04.864-07:002024-02-09T11:44:04.864-07:00The market capitalization of Peabody is now $3.35 ...The market capitalization of Peabody is now $3.35 billion versus $3.3 billion when we wrote about them last quarter. (It was $4 billion when we wrote about them in August 2022.) Total liabilities less current assets are now $335 million, so we would put the enterprise value at $3.7 billion now.<br /><br />For the fourth quarter of 2023, adjusted EBITDA was $345 million, up from $270 million in the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2023 was $1.4 billion which is about equal to the Q4 annualized figure. That puts the EV/EBITDA at 2.7x. <br /><br />Operating cash flow for the quarter was $282 million and $1,036 million for the year. Capital expenditures were $158 million for the quarter and $348 million for the year. <br /><br />So the free cash flow yield on enterprise value is 13% based on the most recent quarter or 19% for the full year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-61594826966456554842024-01-25T18:52:59.756-07:002024-01-25T18:52:59.756-07:00Great comments above.
@CP what if the USA is lea...Great comments above.<br /><br /> @CP what if the USA is leading the charge to free the world of tyranny, here and abroad, if it were to happen, wouldn't that put a bid on US Treasuries?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-5621785544846586942024-01-24T08:32:48.753-07:002024-01-24T08:32:48.753-07:00India's share of global oil consumption alread...<i>India's share of global oil consumption already rose to more than 5% in 2022, up from 4% in 2021 and 3% in 2002.<br />By 2030, India's crude oil imports and fuel consumption will command almost as much attention from analysts as China's did a decade ago.<br />India's petroleum consumption increased by more than 5% last year, above the average for the previous decade.</i><br />https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-become-main-driver-incremental-oil-use-by-2030-kemp-2024-01-23/CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-11246505432851163592024-01-23T17:03:42.560-07:002024-01-23T17:03:42.560-07:00This is definitely true:
"Most people are af...This is definitely true:<br /><br /><i>"Most people are afraid to think for themselves. They are wordcels that don't read."</i>CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-75147314516100319512024-01-23T16:37:03.586-07:002024-01-23T16:37:03.586-07:00I think we'll say it about old economy compani...I think we'll say it about old economy companies generally, as well as inflation beneficiary companies.<br /><br />I think the bubble will be seen, retrospectively, in government bonds.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-57338924166994513252024-01-22T23:02:28.013-07:002024-01-22T23:02:28.013-07:00Epiphany from the Thorp reviews: with hindsight we...Epiphany from the Thorp reviews: with hindsight we always think how easy earlier investors had it. Graham, Buffett, Thorp... they were exploiting obvious market inefficiencies where everyone else was blind to the underlying intrinsic value.<br /><br />When we look back on today I think we'll say the same thing about foreign-domiciled resource co's. 80% of investors ignore energy, and 90% of investors think every company operating outside the US is a corrupt kleptocracy.<br /><br />They are not easy to find, but like with those guys from decades ago, gems <i>are</i> out there waiting to be found. The companies aren't broken or ticking timebombs. It's that no one else cares and most people are afraid to think for themselves. They are wordcels that don't read. Lunatic lemmings, as Thorp called it.<br /><br />Also good time to remind ourselves this is what Einhorn was saying back in 2022. Buy FCF-ing companies no one cares about and sit tight. The cash they're throwing off will have to go back to shareholders eventually, whether buybacks or dividends. There's no other place for it to go. (Self-dealing managements excepted, of course.)Allan Folzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06762674627739423845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-78708543132290347902024-01-01T13:09:05.410-07:002024-01-01T13:09:05.410-07:00Communism should not be thought of as a form of go...Communism should not be thought of as a form of government, but mass demonic possession, this is why communism steamrolls its opposition, becasue it's treated like a political phenomenon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-44834792341865277882023-12-22T13:13:39.604-07:002023-12-22T13:13:39.604-07:00Tim Ferris says he uses phosphatidylserine and N-a...Tim Ferris says he uses phosphatidylserine and N-acetylcysteine at bedtime to lower any feelings of being tired and wired by stress. That’s interesting. There is a medical literature about using phosphatidylserine to blunt the effects of stress. For example, "Blunting by chronic phosphatidylserine administration of the stress-induced activation of the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal axis in healthy men."<br /><br />Ferris (pp.138-142) gives 5 tools he uses to get faster and better sleep.<br /><br />(1) ChiliPad, a device that circulates temperature-controlled water in a very thin sheet beneath normal bed sheets. It has two zones, so two people who need different temperatures can sleep side by side.<br /><br />(2) Three soothing things: a honey and apple cider vinegar beverage, or Yogi soothing caramel bedtime tea, or California poppy extract.<br /><br />(3) Visual overwriting to crowd out thoughts that interfere with sleep. Ferris gives two ways to visually overwrite unwelcome thoughts: playing 10 minutes of Tetris or watching some short and episodic TV, such as, Ferris says, Escape to River Cottage, a TV program featuring host/chef Hugh Fearnley-Whitingstall.<br /><br />4) Sleep Master sleep mask and Mack’s Pillow soft silicone putty earplugs to shut out sound and light.<br /><br />(5) Marpac Dohm DS sound conditioner that produces white noise.<br /><br />It’s probably not a good idea for Ferris to watch Escape to River Cottage, or any other TV, right before bedtime. The TV screen broadcasts blue light that interferes with sleep. More subtly, watching Fearnley-Whittingstall has to be, for Ferris, an engaging, stimulating business activity. As part of his work, Ferris seeks business titans, business models, interesting business case studies.<br /><br />Fearnley-Whittingstall is a prodigious business case study himself. His many ventures include cookbooks, DVDs about food, a long running television series, cookery courses, entertainment events, restaurants, canteens, delis, and food products such as beer and yogurt. Fearnley-Whittingstall has a brand name, River Cottage, which, like Pepsi-Cola, or General Motors, covers a host of activities.<br /><br />Ferris would be better off reading a table of random numbers. It would be less exciting.<br /><br />I don’t use special sleepy-time tools. My bedroom windows have coal-black curtains. The loudest sound in the nighttime, outside my windows, is barred owls. My bed and pillows are perfect. I read and write to calm down. Then, I sleep like a baby. This might work for you, especially if you keep to a regular schedule, don’t take any caffeine after breakfast, and don’t drink anything after dinner. Make a transitional period before bedtime where you free yourself from obligations and excitement.Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-61469988545942442092023-12-22T13:10:49.818-07:002023-12-22T13:10:49.818-07:00Charles Poliquin (pp.74-80) helps champion athlete...Charles Poliquin (pp.74-80) helps champion athletes in almost 20 different sports to build muscles.<br /><br />He recommends gotu kola, an herb, for removing scar tissue or unnecessary connective tissue. He says to use one dropperful of Gaia Herbs Gotu Kola Leaf liquid extract a day, which he says also improves tendon repair and cognitive function.<br /><br />Polinquin says to check these four biomarkers every 8 weeks: (1) morning (fasting) insulin, (2) morning (fasting) glucose, (3) oral glucose test, and (4) Hemoglobulin A1c (HbA1c).<br /><br />HbA1c measures the amount of sugar one has eaten in the past 3 months.<br /><br />Polinquin says that the amount of magnesium--supplemental magnesium--that you consume is the fastest way to lower HbA1c. He prefers magnesium threonate, to all other forms, because it crosses the blood-brain barrier and affects the brain favorably. It induces GABA, a neurotransmitter that has a relaxing effect. He also uses magnesium glycinate, orotate, glycinate, and glycerophosphate.<br /><br />I use magnesium threonate, asporotate, and glycinate. But also strongly limit sugar to lower my HbA1c.<br /><br />Polinquin says every form of magnesium tends to go to a specific tissue. He says magnesium orotate tends to work more in the vascular system.<br /><br />This pans out. The National Library of Medicine has 53 journal articles that mention magnesium orotate. Most of these 53 articles concern the heart or blood vessels.<br /><br />The most recent one, [Meta-analysis of clinical trials of cardiovascular effects of magnesium orotate]., concludes, “The use of magnesium orotate is promising not only in treating MVP [mitral valve prolapse] and compensating for hypomagnesemia, but also in preventing and treating cardiac arrhythmias, regulating blood pressure, and improving the function of the autonomic nervous system.”<br /><br />Poliquin says, “The length of time [a doctor] spends with you on your first visit is probably your best indicator [of their quality].”<br /><br />This checks out. The best primary care doctor I ever had gave up her lunch hour to spend an hour-and-a-half with me to start doctoring me back to health after I had a heart attack. She had earlier been voted one of the best doctors in our city. She was awesome. Smart. Energetic. Well organized.<br /><br />Poliquin says that, as a rule, the best way to increase testosterone is to lower cortisol. Testosterone and cortisol both are made from pregnenolone, the mother hormone. So, any pregnenolone used to make cortisol leaves less to make testosterone. Cortisol is a stress hormone. Stress causes cortisol production. So that means reduce stress to raise testosterone.Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-55996747824977749632023-12-22T13:10:14.602-07:002023-12-22T13:10:14.602-07:00Jason Nemer (pp.46-51) is a champion acrobat and y...Jason Nemer (pp.46-51) is a champion acrobat and yoga expert. Ferris says (p,47) Nemer never stays in one place for more than 3 weeks, and he never goes anywhere without “a ukulele and a donkey’s load of [Duck Shit Oolong Tea].”<br /><br />Peter Attia, MD (pp.59-71) is a former endurance athlete and is a self-experimenter. He focuses on performance and longevity. Attia wears a Dexcom G5 continuous glucose monitor 24/7 to display his glucose levels on his iPhone. He calibrates the Dexcom two to three times a day with a OneTouch Ultra 2 glucometer.<br /><br />Attia recommends (pp. 64-65) these blood tests: APOE genotype, LDL particle number via NMR, Lp(a) via NMR, Oral Glucose Tolerance Test, and Insulin Growth Factor-1 (IGF-1).<br /><br />Attia meditates.Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-63706119813736402942023-12-22T13:08:02.623-07:002023-12-22T13:08:02.623-07:00Amelia Boone (pp.2-5) recommends (p.3) eating hydr...Amelia Boone (pp.2-5) recommends (p.3) eating hydrolyzed gelatin and beet root powder for tissue repair.<br /><br />Rhonda Perciavalle Patrick, PhD (pp.6-8) recommends (page 7) saving tissue from extracted wisdom teeth for stem cell banking for later treatment. She also says hyperthermic conditioning (calculated heat exposure) helps increase growth hormone (GH) and substantially improves endurance.<br /><br />Dominic D’Agostino (pp.21-34) is associate professor in the Department of Molecular Pharmacology and Physiology at the University of South Florida Morsani College of Medicine. He has dead-lifted 500 pounds for 10 reps after a 7-day fast. <br /><br />Ferris uses D-Agostino (page 23) as an authority to advocate using diet to get into ketosis or taking supplemental ketones for (1) fat loss and improved body composition, (2) for potent anti-cancer effects, (3) better use of oxygen, and (4) maintaining or increasing strength. Ferris says (page 25) he tries to do a three-day fast once a month.<br /><br />D’Agostino’s daily supplements (pages 30-31) are MCT oil, bone broth, idebenone, magnesium, branched-chain amino acids, and some ketones.<br /><br />D’Agostino recommends (pages 32-33) the following for cancer treatment: a ketogenic diet, intermittent fasting (1 meal a day within a 4-hour window), ketone supplementation 2 to 4 times a day, metformin, and dichloroacetic acid (DCA).<br /><br />Patrick Arnold (pp. 35-37) is an organic chemist who collaborates with D’Agostino. Ferris (page 37) says both of these men are interested in metformin for life extension. Ferris estimates that a dozen of the people in this book use metformin for life extension.Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-63020353364539211622023-12-22T13:06:09.649-07:002023-12-22T13:06:09.649-07:00Copy successful people, especially for the little ...Copy successful people, especially for the little things. It saves time. It saves willpower that you might otherwise fritter away, making small decisions. That way, you can do a better job on the big ones.<br /><br />Scott Adams (pp.261-270) uses a Wacom Cintiq tablet to draw Dilbert, his comic strip. You can choose the same tablet he did a few years ago, and get started drawing right away, or you can spend a few dozen hours choosing a different tablet. You decide.<br /><br />Ramit Seth (pp.287-291) has a personal finance blog with more than a million readers per month. He uses Infusionsoft, which is complete sales and marketing automation software for small businesses, and Visual Website Optimizer, A/B testing software for marketers.<br /><br />Seth said, “...I cannot recommend guest posting enough.” Both Ramit Seth and Tim Ferris use guest posting to build networks of fans.<br /><br />Ferris (p.295) says to get project financing from one’s fans. He says there are about 2,000 different crowdfunding platforms worldwide.<br /><br />GoFundMe and Kickstarter are two of the most dominant crowdfunding platforms. Ferris (pp.299-302) asked Mike Del Ponte, a founder of Soma, a successful startup that Ferris advises, to tell how Del Ponte used Kickstarter to raise $100K in 10 days.Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-63132354697672091492023-11-15T12:03:29.541-07:002023-11-15T12:03:29.541-07:00CLEAN LIVING:
I suppose luck and genes can make a...<b>CLEAN LIVING</b>:<br /><br /><i>I suppose luck and genes can make a difference. Still, let me look over my own family:<br /><br />step-mother's grandfather, age of death 104, sharp until the last couple months: a deeply religious man who had worked in the ministry his entire life, had long passages of the Bible memorized, maintained a 1/2 acre garden and went on a daily walk up almost until the end, frequent domino/card player, lifelong teetoler<br /><br />paternal grandmother, age of death 92: sharp until the last day, deeply involved in local Catholic church, talked on phone to every one of six children near daily, daily 30 minute walk, occasional glass of wine<br /><br />maternal grandmother and grandfather, age of death 91: died within weeks of each other, grandfather sharp until the end, grandmother some mild cognitive decline in last 3-4 years, both took daily walk, highly involved in community, 1-2 glasses of wine with dinner 2-3 times per week<br /><br />step-father, age of death 71: years of early-onset dementia, favorite activity was watching TV, a good day was if he only had 3 beers, usually 5-6, exercised by mowing lawn once a week and very occasional (boozy) round of golf<br /><br />I could go on. Yeah, surely genes and luck are involved, but from what I see, exercise, lifestyle, involvement in community and church, and moderation in alcohol and diet really outweigh that.<br /><br />I think there is definitely such a thing as "successful aging." Instead of taking offense, it'd probably be better to learn from good examples.</i><br /><br />https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/11/the-amazing-vernon-smith.htmlCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-27031397472232895582023-11-15T12:01:48.100-07:002023-11-15T12:01:48.100-07:00Academic economists seem to live a long time:
You...Academic economists seem to live a long time:<br /><br /><i>You can find Vernon Smith hard at work at his computer by 7:30 each morning, cranking out 10 solid hours of writing and researching every day. His job is incredibly demanding — he is currently on the faculty of both the business and law schools at Chapman University. But the hard work pays off: Smith’s research is consistently ranked as the most-cited work produced at the school — a testament to his ongoing academic influence and success. He manages his job and research work while also coauthoring books and traveling around the country to deliver lectures. It’s a remarkable level of productivity, made all the more remarkable by one simple fact: Vernon Smith is 96 years old. Smith, who was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences at the tender age of 75, says he feels the same passion as he did then, and even as he did when he embarked on his career more than seven decades ago.</i><br /><br />https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/11/the-amazing-vernon-smith.htmlCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-75746301179789532522023-11-10T12:41:36.519-07:002023-11-10T12:41:36.519-07:00"Imagine the phone calls from your Boomer LP&...<b>"Imagine the phone calls from your Boomer LP's when a LatAm trade goes against you."</b>CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-24666420761626403392023-11-10T12:41:03.748-07:002023-11-10T12:41:03.748-07:00Q3 2023 results:
https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanag...Q3 2023 results:<br /><br />https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/25fdf098-34f5-4608-b7fa-17d60b2de47d/7414f074-b2d6-40b4-b028-e6a8019ba34c?origin=1<br /><br />Free cash flow of US $8.4 billion for the quarter, they paid $4.8 billion of dividends.<br /><br />Enterprise value is $137 billion, so FCF/EV is 25%, shareholder yield is 20%.<br /><br />Crude oil and NGL production was up 10.3% vs prior quarter and 9.6% year-over-year.<br /><br />CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.com