Credit Bubble Stocks

GMO forecasts negative returns for U.S. value and U.S. small caps over the next seven years, based on multiple and profit margin contraction...

This week : "One type of illusory yield is the earnings yield on stocks, where profit margins are presently 70% above historical norm...

Link . "The problem today is that the recent half-cycle has taken valuations back to historically rich levels. Presently, the Shiller...

I had never paid much attention to Horizon Kinetics , an asset manager run by Murray Stahl and Steven Bregman, but I've been reading the...

Just reading the latest Hussman annual report for his funds (as opposed to his weekly market comments, which I frequently post quotes from)...

"Long-term interest rates have plunged to record lows, and real interest rates are negative after inflation. What interest rates are te...

From yesterday : QE is effective in supporting stock prices and driving risk-premiums down, but only once they are already elevated. As a r...

"['S]econd half' of the primary bear market reflects the view that - unlike most bear markets and economic downturns - the down...

At the end of this week's Hussman essay is the best thing I have ever read on growth. Consider a very large, untapped market for some ...

"I can't emphasize enough how badly standard P/E metrics are being distorted by record (but reliably cyclical) profit margins, whi...

"The hope for continued high profit margins really comes down to the hope that government and the household sector will both continue a...

I like to talk about things that are overrated and underrated. For example, I've said that Security Analysis by Ben Graham is seriously ...

Followup from the comments section of the previous post. Hussman is beating the market because he has world-class macro sense regarding v...

Hussman has published the 2011 annual report for his funds. I thought this was notable: As of December 31, 2011, Strategic Growth Fund had...

Why is it necessary for there to be 50 analysts covering Apple or 35 analysts covering Cisco or 29 analysts covering Intel? Is that really ...

"As of last week, the stock market remained characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndrome, coupled wi...

I'm sometimes characterized as a "perma-bear." This is because the period since 2000 has been generally characterized by unusu...

the extraordinarily weak economic data in late 2008 and early 2009 may have produced an upward bump in a wide variety of seasonal adjustment...

The weekly Hussman is up. He and I agree that the potential market outcomes are asymmetrically bearish, because the market has essentiall...

[I]nvestors face a perfect storm - risky assets priced to achieve dismal long-term returns (except in comparison to equally dismal alternati...