Weekend Roundup: Standard Pacific, Dollar Lows, Phoenix Residential Stagnation
Quick facts before the weekend:
- Dollar index hit an all time low today. It has lost about 3% since the September rate cut. I am long Euros through FXE, which is yielding 3.36%.
- Someone from a Standard Pacific Homes IP address just did a Google search for "standard pacific bankruptcy." For those of you new to the site, Credit Bubble Stocks does offer continuing coverage of Standard Pacific. I have continually rated SPF a "sell" since March and still own the puts. The homebuilder stocks rallied today on the strength of a 12% rise in orders at NVR. Points:
- A 12% rise in orders is not that meaningful. How many will close?
- NVR is the best positioned builder. Their slight strength doesn't imply anything about SPF. They build in practically opposite markets. I bought puts into the SPF and Beazer strength today.
- Valley resale market enters holiday slowdown. Matches the projection from my October 3 post, meaning that Phoenix metro has a massive inventory overhang.
