Credit Bubble Stocks

A correspondent writes in, The aesthetics of CBS' value rotation trade is sartorial gentlemen smoking cigarettes and driving about thei...

It's time now for the scoring of the 2017 Prediction Contest [previously 1 , 2 , 3 ]. Before we do that, everyone look at the below an...

The questions/events and the new scoring rules for the 2017 predictions. Here are the probability averages from most probable to least pro...

The scoring method for the 2016 prediction contest didn't properly reward well calibrated predictions, which we are going to fix this ye...

Credit Bubble Stocks has compiled the most interesting potential events submitted by readers into a master list. New * Either Buffett or M...

See previous post. My score was 118%. The other scores were: 150%     18%     -80% [Hall of Shame]    235%     9%     41%     272...

Just about a year ago we held the Credit Bubble Stocks 2016 Reader Prediction Contest . The results are almost in! If you'll recall, a...

Here's an interesting way to look at the responses. This is sorted by standard deviation of the 16 responses. So, the list goes from mos...

Ten year Treasuries trade at a yield below 1.5%.  - 10% Ten year Treasuries trade at a yield above 3.5%. - 13% At any time, the two year ...

The average probability (from the participants so far) is less than 50% for the following events: Donald Trump is elected President. Gold...

Credit Bubble Stocks has compiled the most interesting potential events submitted by readers into a master list of two dozen. Ten year T...

Thanks to everyone who participated in the 2015 Reader Prediction Contest [ results ]. We're doing a 2016 contest, but it is different,...

Just about a year ago we held the Credit Bubble Stocks 2015 Reader Prediction Contest . The results are in! The contestants fall into three ...

A correspondent sent this in: Would you go long or short the following from current levels (assuming you must hold for at least three year...

Impending Crash