Credit Bubble Stocks

The world has been noisy recently. Geopolitical conflict, shipping disruptions, tariff fights. I don't know how those will resolve. Wha...

Washington said Wednesday that, as of next week, it would impose a 25% tariff on some 3,000 goods from Brazil. It is the first country hit w...

Our modern Midas-in-Reverse hopes his hagiography one day describes the great ‘labor’ of his shepherding the nation through an historic cros...

If defeat seems a strong word, consider what we do know about how this war will end. Iran has suffered significant damage from U.S. and Isra...

The trillion-dollar cluster—+4 OOMs from the GPT-4 cluster, the ~2030 training cluster on the current trend—will be a truly extraordinary ef...

It’s official: the world stock market is now as wild as it was during the tech-stock bubble. Since April 2026, we’ve had epic levels of retu...

It is not good news, then, that over the past 10 years, private equity has focused on taking companies private that are both more levered an...

Realistically, frontier LLMs are already strongly superhuman at basically all tasks requiring crystallized knowledge and pattern-matching re...

A cyclical business that produces average returns over a full cycle will give investors worse total returns, because at the peak it won'...

Murray and Bregman and their fellow partners started the firm with ideas rather than money. They had none to manage and not even the $100,00...

Over the long run in infosec, the defensive side tends to win. There's a lot of deadweight loss in a hack, and hackers have a higher dis...

“The poor” in the United States today are not, generally speaking, hungry. Around a third of Americans are considered overweight; nearly hal...

Citrini Research sent our incredibly capable field analyst – dubbed Analyst #3 in order to avoid emotional attachment – on assignment to the...

The prospect of a sustained reversion in investment yields likely extends beyond the horizon of bargain-hunters’ binoculars. We may look b...

Trump has escaped other predicaments of his own making, but there is something different about this one. The attack on Iran is so wildly inc...