tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post2240170514961085255..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: 2017 Prediction Contest ResultsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-34134757945145235392018-01-11T11:02:14.975-07:002018-01-11T11:02:14.975-07:00B -
We are waiting for your %s!
http://www.credi...B -<br /><br />We are waiting for your %s!<br /><br />http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2018/01/prediction-time-2018-prediction-contest.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-33518355791499033202018-01-09T14:51:36.583-07:002018-01-09T14:51:36.583-07:002018 contest: http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/20...2018 contest: http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2018/01/prediction-time-2018-prediction-contest.html<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-70734132177963900952018-01-06T23:45:54.729-07:002018-01-06T23:45:54.729-07:00Yea - agreed on the poor diets - and they seem qui...Yea - agreed on the poor diets - and they seem quite healthy for their age.<br /><br />My name's Benson - I added my email to my blogger profile - I am a structured finance professional now working at a lending-focused fintech.<br /><br />I've been reading this blog for a few years. The breadth of the linkfests are great and I've been trying to get more people involved in the prediction contest - though most people I've chatted with have shied away from this because of the number of items.<br /><br />For 2018 events, some ideas are:<br />- bitcoin is no longer the cryptocurrency with the largest market cap<br />- cryptocurrency-based company raises money / IPOs at a 10B+ post-money valuation<br />- IPO of decacorn company occurs<br />- Core CPI exceeds 2.5%<br />- US company issues debt at negative spread (in USD)<br />- Fed raises rates 4 times in 2018<br />- Fed lowers rates at some point in 2018<br />- spread between 90-day treasury and 10-year treasury falls below 50 bps at some point<br />- JPYUSD below 100<br />- US Dollar Index falls below 80<br />- N Korea enters agreement with either US or S Korea to demilitarize / limit arms development<br />- AAPL falls below 150<br />- 6.0+ earthquake hits Bay Area or LA area<br />- XIV positive for the year<br />- 4 or more of the top 10 most viewed youtube music videos are songs sung in Spanish<br />Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16030420900568871557noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-69220457541450186842018-01-06T14:39:17.327-07:002018-01-06T14:39:17.327-07:00I figure that despite poor diets, WB & CM have...I figure that despite poor diets, WB & CM have access to heroic medical care and a lot to live for. <br /><br />So... who are you? I don't think we've seen you in the comments before.<br /><br />You have any suggestions for 2018 events for prediction contest?CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-25824212048196496862018-01-06T12:43:01.448-07:002018-01-06T12:43:01.448-07:00That would be me - though notably I did not beat t...That would be me - though notably I did not beat the average. On the Munger/Buffett probability, I guessed 31 as follows (using SSA mortality table):<br /><br />P(die|86.5) = 11.49%<br />P(die|93) = 21.93%<br /><br />P(either buffett or munger dies) = 1 - P(both live) = 1-(1-P(die|86.5))*(1-P(die|93)) = ~31%Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16030420900568871557noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-10814058511187553242018-01-05T21:38:46.940-07:002018-01-05T21:38:46.940-07:00By the way, "B" should get in touch with...By the way, "B" should get in touch with us...CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.com