tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post2731557888688408164..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: Some Large Cap Short IdeasUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-49176295487517472112023-07-17T21:00:02.635-07:002023-07-17T21:00:02.635-07:00MCD - up 24%
DIS - down 18%
MO - down 3.5%
BTI - d...MCD - up 24%<br />DIS - down 18%<br />MO - down 3.5%<br />BTI - down 11.5%<br />VZ - down 29%<br /><br />https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=MCD&compare=BTI,DIS,MO,VZ&id=p91712899573CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-16688915050414646672023-05-22T19:48:09.537-07:002023-05-22T19:48:09.537-07:00SECTORS UNDER PRESSURE: Deterioration in credit pr...<i>SECTORS UNDER PRESSURE: Deterioration in credit profile net of new supply. <b>Incremental CAPEX is a “tax” on free cashflow (FCF) and leverage profile driven by regulation and/or market dynamics.</b> Higher leverage occurs without commensurate growth in future demand and profitability.<br /><br />U.S. Utilities – Over the past decade, U.S. electric utilities have intensified their capital spending, i) to reduce carbon pollution, ii) to update and replace aging infrastructure, iii) to harden systems and protect against more volatile weather and, iv) to pay for smart grid technology, increased security to safeguard against physical and cyber-attacks. Regulated Utilities’ prudent capital investments can have a positive impact on their Return on Equity (ROE), as it increases their underlying rate-base. In the near-term credit metrics can be negatively impacted as CAPEX is largely debt financed and with some lag expected before cash flow begins.<br /><br />U.S. Telecoms – <b>Despite heavy spending on 5G wireless spectrum and CAPEX, these investments do not necessarily lead to greater pricing power or revenues. Rather, carriers are forced to make these investments in order to not fall behind in network performance and guard their respective wireless market shares.</b> New 5G use cases are preliminarily being contemplated (i.e. – augmented reality, metaverse, internet-of-things, fixed-wireless broadband), but monetization and business models remain far from clear. While a key company predicts that the addressable market size of “network-as-a-service” will expand from $340 to $460 billion from 2021-26, CAPEX spending in Telecom is currently peaking and is expected to drop measurably in 2023, as major spectrum auctions generally occur every five years.</i><br />https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/individual-investor/insights/articles/capex-reshapes-credit-profile-sectors-in-flux.html<br />CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-79815816304956246452023-05-15T16:37:21.730-07:002023-05-15T16:37:21.730-07:00NKE 10-Q/10-K
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...NKE 10-Q/10-K<br />https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018723000013/nke-20230228.htm<br />https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320187/000032018722000038/nke-20220531.htmCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-81544315979809190052023-05-15T16:37:04.719-07:002023-05-15T16:37:04.719-07:00NKE is an interesting suggestion.
Facts:
Market ...NKE is an interesting suggestion.<br /><br />Facts: <br />Market cap $190 billion, EV just a touch higher (not much debt)<br /><br />For the first quarter, net income was $1.24 billion versus $1.4 billion the year prior. (So, 38x mrq annualized earnings of $5 billion.)<br /><br />In 2022 they made (net) $6 billion and in 2021 they made $5.7 billion.<br /><br />Most of the earnings are in North America: $5.1 billion of EBIT in 2022.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-41218755099465617802023-05-14T17:24:22.700-07:002023-05-14T17:24:22.700-07:00The McDonald's short is a good idea for no oth...The McDonald's short is a good idea for no other reason than the stores near me are dated and dirty.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-46209915977536209372023-05-14T11:40:05.381-07:002023-05-14T11:40:05.381-07:00Great stuff as usual. I think this will prove to b...Great stuff as usual. I think this will prove to be very prescient. <br /><br />I think Nike (NKE) might be another candidate with similar traits. Free cash hasn't grown much in 4-5 years. With enterprise value around $190 billion and FCF around $4b (and stagnant), the yield is barely 2%.Paciolinoreply@blogger.com