tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post7899783432345327373..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: Choice Comment on the "Housing Eating the World" EssayUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-66810772089590045412016-06-10T00:38:07.684-07:002016-06-10T00:38:07.684-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Andrea Gravesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-40507986161982864822016-06-07T15:09:06.221-07:002016-06-07T15:09:06.221-07:00What Conor Sen did essentially was describe the cu...What Conor Sen did essentially was describe the current state of reality in such a way that it appeared like a prediction or forecast of the future. The familiar and undeniable fact of present reality seduced people into thinking this pseudo-prediction is implicitly accurate and inevitable.<br /><br />In reality, reversion to the mean suggests a better bet is that something which is wildly expensive in relation to incomes and expectations actually gets cheaper over time, not more wildly expensive. You're going further and further out into outlier land, especially with regards to the time of origination of the trend versus the additional timeline granted in the forecast. If the "prediction" turns out to be true, its success can be explained as LUCK, not PRESCIENCE.Taylor Conanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18270678440957992085noreply@blogger.com