tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post8703731565473019423..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: Friday Afternoon Links (April 24th)Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-19905463478474998942020-04-24T17:51:37.832-07:002020-04-24T17:51:37.832-07:00First of all, I really enjoy these link posts. The...First of all, I really enjoy these link posts. They always keep me coming back for more. :)<br /><br /><i>If the value of what I get is 30% of what I've been promised I'll be fine. I hope 30% is a reasonable expectation. We'll see. I recommend that everyone start with the mental readjustments now. If I'm just an alarmist, what's the harm?</i><br /><br />I can really relate to this.<br /><br />Many years ago, I assumed that my low risk investments would grow at a real rate of -2% per year (after taxes) and adjusted spending accordingly. At the time, I could lock in a low risk real rate of over 3% (before taxes). Today, I can only lock in a very safe real rate of -0.27% (before taxes) on the 30-year TIPS. My initial safety margin is now pretty much gone.<br /><br />I always value my free time way more than I value my discretionary spending. So, what was the harm? In hindsight, there was definitely no harm. Had I spent money thinking that past prosperity was a great predictor of future prosperity, I’d need to be looking for a job right now, during a pandemic, with unemployment at historical levels.<br /><br />The primary theme of my blog, repeated many times, is that it will be increasingly difficult to make money off of money. I still strongly believe it. Once you believe that, you stop believing in rising real yields. Instead, you see nominal bond yields decay to zero. The best outcome in that environment, as a saver, is that inflation also decays to zero. Otherwise, real yields go negative.<br /><br />I think bond yields (both nominal and real) are probably going to stabilize from here. We’ll also be comparing ourselves to Japan more and more. What will our population growth rate be going forward? Birth rates were already very low and we’re apparently not going to embrace immigration any longer. How many notice or appreciate what the implications and unintended consequences of this is and will be?<br /><br /><a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/05/15/723518379/u-s-births-fell-to-a-32-year-low-in-2018-cdc-says-birthrate-is-at-record-level" rel="nofollow">U.S. Births Fell To A 32-Year Low In 2018; CDC Says Birthrate Is In Record Slump</a><br /><br /><a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/494572-stephen-miller-indicates-immigration-pause-will-be-long-term-report" rel="nofollow">Stephen Miller indicates immigration pause will be long term: report</a>Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com