tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post933555501985988779..comments2024-03-08T11:20:30.095-07:00Comments on Credit Bubble Stocks: China Ponzi. The Grasshopper and the Ants.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-63287639296113017822015-07-06T19:03:08.085-07:002015-07-06T19:03:08.085-07:00Well, over this weekend China gave up on the idea ...Well, over this weekend China gave up on the idea of having a stock market:<br /><br />* funds and institutions aren't allowed (or are strongly discouraged) to sell<br />* no margin calls<br />* halt trading in your shares indefinitely<br /><br />I guess it was fun for them for a while, but a real market where the powerful have to trade at and accept a real market price is of no interest to them. <br /><br />And what does that tell us about how much trouble they must be in?CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-6878661901440726892014-03-17T12:37:35.338-07:002014-03-17T12:37:35.338-07:00CP,
Well...
They Just Aren't Making Any More...CP,<br /><br />Well...<br /><br /><a href="http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2012/04/they-just-arent-making-any-more-phasers.html" rel="nofollow">They Just Aren't Making Any More... Phasers</a><br /><br />Hahaha! :)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-80506475195899200472014-03-17T11:46:45.856-07:002014-03-17T11:46:45.856-07:00The only safe god is Gold Toe socks, right Mark?The only safe god is Gold Toe socks, right Mark?CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-32900200941661230252014-03-17T11:46:09.568-07:002014-03-17T11:46:09.568-07:00Good stuff:
http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot....Good stuff:<br /><br />http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-gold-bubble-v2.htmlCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-72070995012813009432014-03-17T01:55:10.644-07:002014-03-17T01:55:10.644-07:00CP,
That led to a theory that you should do whate...CP,<br /><br /><i>That led to a theory that you should do whatever makes Seeking Alpha commenters most irate.</i><br /><br />Hahaha!<br /><br />I try to just write what I think, but part of me doesn't like to stir the pot too much on my own blog.<br /><br />Since I have an Illusion of Prosperity blog, I don't think most want to see me trash talk precious metals. I can understand that. Doesn't change my opinion that no asset is good at any price though.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.321gold.com/fed/greenspan/1966.html" rel="nofollow">Gold and Economic Freedom - Alan Greenspan (1966)</a><br /><br /><i>In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value.</i><br /><br />1. There is no gold standard.<br />2. There is no safe store of value.<br /><br />Therefore, gold is not a safe store of value.<br /><br /><i>The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.</i><br /><br />Gold fans love that article though. Go figure.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-67325690741183484382014-03-16T20:01:29.303-07:002014-03-16T20:01:29.303-07:00http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2014/01/silver-b...http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2014/01/silver-bubble-continues-to-collapse.htmlCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-55856549248415627302014-03-16T20:01:21.249-07:002014-03-16T20:01:21.249-07:00That led to a theory that you should do whatever m...That led to a theory that you should do whatever makes Seeking Alpha commenters most irate.<br /><br />Right now, I'd guess that would be owning zero coupon bonds.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-5736005168178584822014-03-16T19:35:45.617-07:002014-03-16T19:35:45.617-07:00http://seekingalpha.com/article/246125-watch-out-f...http://seekingalpha.com/article/246125-watch-out-for-the-silver-bubble?source=notify_acCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-11968665673202094462014-03-16T19:30:11.537-07:002014-03-16T19:30:11.537-07:00CP,
Besides the obvious price volatility, in read...CP,<br /><br /><i>Besides the obvious price volatility, in reading mining companies' investor presentations I see tons of assurances that they can churn out gold profitably even if the price gets cut in half.</i><br /><br />When I bought gold in 2004 I had to make a decision. Gold was in the $400s. Newmont Mining (NEM) was in the $40s.<br /><br />Barrons had this really long article about how great Newmont Mining was positioned. It was just filled with optimism.<br /><br />I decided that I preferred safety. I bought physical gold instead.<br /><br />Newmont Mining now trades in the $20s. No joke.<br /><br />Safety for the win!<br /><br />There is an old quote that I have to thank for my decision.<br /><br />"A mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing over it."<br /><br />Since I worked at a company that had massive accounting fraud shortly before my departure (left like a rat would leave a sinking ship), that quote pushed me over the edge.<br /><br />My financial situation would be quite a bit different right now if not for that. Funny how the seemingly little things can make such a big difference. (One third of my nest egg went into physical gold and silver.)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-17580393128871773382014-03-16T18:50:39.031-07:002014-03-16T18:50:39.031-07:00Mentioned 1/3 as much as gold is a lot.
I also l...Mentioned 1/3 as much as gold is a lot. <br /><br />I also like your concept about "safe store of value." That's what I want too. <br /><br />Gold doesn't seem safe at all. Besides the obvious price volatility, in reading mining companies' investor presentations I see tons of assurances that they can churn out gold profitably even if the price gets cut in half. <br /><br />That doesn't sound like a recipe for stability to me.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-30331608477716923662014-03-16T16:11:43.443-07:002014-03-16T16:11:43.443-07:00CP,
I'd ask how many times aluminum was menti...CP,<br /><br />I'd ask how many times aluminum was mentioned, but since it hadn't even been discovered until the 1800s it would only be a pointed rhetorical question, lol.<br /><br />How about potash? ;)<br /><br /><a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/13/ks-results-idUSL6N0MA0DN20140313&sa=U&ei=ACwmU5SkE8mGogSckYLQBA&ved=0CDAQqQIoADAH&sig2=buCgqINOHGv9W3ox41I4NA&usg=AFQjCNE5dJ5oiXhVuQf94_G7Q_uurA21zA" rel="nofollow">UPDATE 2-K+S sees 2014 profit hit by lower potash prices</a><br /><br /><i>* Average potash prices seen lower in 2014<br /><br />While the group's potash output volumes are seen flat at just below 7 million tonnes, average prices over the course of the year should continue to drop, the group said.<br /><br />Volumes at the salt business, which accounted for 18 percent of operating profit last year, would also be flat in 2014 with lower prices seen in some markets, it added.</i><br /><br />Gold bugs think we'll return to a gold standard. Countries would go to war over the stuff in the ancient past.<br /><br />I say we're on a plutonium standard now. Countries with atomic weapons choose not to fight over gold any longer. Go figure.<br /><br />If and when we do go to war (World War III), then who is going to care about gold? Was Mad Max looking for hidden stockpiles of gold? No. He wanted canned goods.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-42459731408912436172014-03-16T15:55:56.841-07:002014-03-16T15:55:56.841-07:00Gold is mentioned 14 times in the Gospels:
http://...Gold is mentioned 14 times in the Gospels:<br />http://www.biblegateway.com/keyword/?search=gold&version=NIV&searchtype=all&bookset=4&resultspp=100<br /><br />Salt is mentioned 4 times:<br />http://www.biblegateway.com/keyword/?search=salt&version=NIV&searchtype=all&bookset=4&resultspp=100CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-36994727240043842142014-03-16T15:50:42.486-07:002014-03-16T15:50:42.486-07:00CP,
Gold to Salt Price Ratio
Which is really the...CP,<br /><br /><a href="http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2010/06/gold-to-salt-price-ratio.html" rel="nofollow">Gold to Salt Price Ratio</a><br /><br /><i>Which is really the safer store of value? I would claim that salt wins by a HUGE margin. It has tracked the CPI much better than gold over the last 100 years. Gold is all over the place. Fortunes were made and lost as speculators rushed in and rushed out. That's not my idea of safe. Further, gold was extremely expensive compared to salt in 2008. It's only gotten worse.<br /><br />I know what you might be thinking. Yeah, but what if salt explodes higher in price due to all of this monetary printing press activity? Wouldn't the ratio look much better then?<br /><br />1. Then buy salt! It is currently very cheap relative to gold.<br />2. Don't hold your breath.</i><br /><br />Investors don't want safe stores of value. They want to make money, just like people entering a horse track want to make money. And if the do make money, then they think it must continue. Rare is the gambling addict who can actually leave a casino with profits in hand.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-42106205244178229622014-03-16T13:39:27.312-07:002014-03-16T13:39:27.312-07:00"P.S. I love your anti-gold posts because the...<i>"P.S. I love your anti-gold posts because they challenge my position which is good for me whether I turn out to be right or wrong."</i><br /><br />Hmm..CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-73412006862755747402014-03-16T13:38:56.841-07:002014-03-16T13:38:56.841-07:00LOL:
http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/201...LOL:<br /><br />http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2011/08/gold-to-aluminum-price-ratio-update.htmlCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-26973480209143822182014-03-16T13:34:50.636-07:002014-03-16T13:34:50.636-07:00"Gold cannot be both a safe store of value *a...<i>"Gold cannot be both a safe store of value *and* a speculative investment that grows this much faster than industrial commodities in general. One of the two theories is in error."</i>CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-2211541325572515202014-03-16T13:27:52.801-07:002014-03-16T13:27:52.801-07:00Mark, that's a great post. That chart and your...Mark, that's a great post. That chart and your charts of aluminum/gold, bananas/gold, paper towels/gold, copper/gold, hourly wages/gold really demonstrate to me that gold is a bubble and has gotten far ahead of any "inflation".CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-3317758611637810112014-03-15T19:42:26.836-07:002014-03-15T19:42:26.836-07:00The Gold Bubble
Should these unsustainable trends...<a href="http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-gold-bubble.html" rel="nofollow">The Gold Bubble</a><br /><br /><i>Should these unsustainable trends continue and the producer price index for industrial commodities were to eventually go up by a factor of 10, then gold would go up 10,000 times and cost roughly $13,700,000 per ounce (or $1 million or so per ounce in inflation adjusted dollars perhaps). Good luck on finding many people on the planet able to buy a single gold ring if/when that were to happen.</i>Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-37206388346100446112014-03-15T14:51:54.189-07:002014-03-15T14:51:54.189-07:00CP,
And maybe paper towels.
We paper towel specu...CP,<br /><br /><i>And maybe paper towels.</i><br /><br />We paper towel speculators are a crafty lot. We can legally avoid paying any capital gains tax on our inflationary gains. Rather than reselling to greater fools (as many other types of speculators hope to do), we instead send our "profits" directly to the landfills, lol.<br /><br />I joke and yet I am also serious. :)Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-41968848590745476132014-03-15T14:42:08.815-07:002014-03-15T14:42:08.815-07:00Anonymous,
Selection bias much?
I was able to be...Anonymous,<br /><br /><i>Selection bias much?</i><br /><br />I was able to become very bearish on housing even though I didn't have a mortgage (house was paid off) and none of my friends were living above their means.<br /><br />I was also able to become very bearish on dotcom stocks even though I didn't own dotcom stocks and neither did my friends.<br /><br />I guess I just sort of assumed that the universe did not revolve around my friends and me, lol.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-19208838188169797102014-03-15T13:54:28.581-07:002014-03-15T13:54:28.581-07:00Yes, I was thinking last night that you have to ho...Yes, I was thinking last night that you have to hoard stuff that no one else is hoarding. Nobody was hoarding gold a decade ago... unfortunately now they are. <br /><br />Now, nobody's hoarding savings bonds or cash, I guess. And maybe paper towels. I think everything else is being hoarded pretty thoroughly though.CPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12701174164478027499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-28426534153135476352014-03-15T13:39:20.008-07:002014-03-15T13:39:20.008-07:00Lol, response to why'd I buy:
"People ar...Lol, response to why'd I buy:<br /><br />"People are building a house of cards in So Cal among other hot cities. How can you be so obtuse and not see it? I'm actually very tired of people like you that can't see the writing on the wall."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-43547122709424428402014-03-15T13:38:23.654-07:002014-03-15T13:38:23.654-07:00Mark, you missed the best part of that Why'd I...Mark, you missed the best part of that Why'd I Buy? comment!<br /><br />"I and nearly everybody I know also has a house paid for free and clear or has a modest mortgage. Exactly where are all these bubble people?"<br /><br />Selection bias much?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-27129818460208260182014-03-15T04:24:28.109-07:002014-03-15T04:24:28.109-07:00As a side note, I have no desire to own gold and s...As a side note, I have no desire to own gold and silver now. I don't believe they are safe havens any longer.<br /><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=t6D" rel="nofollow">Real Gold Price (Adjusted by PPI: All Commodities</a><br /><br />No asset is good at any price. Stocks? Housing? Gold? Stocks again?<br /><br />For what it is worth, about the only thing nearly universally hated right now are Savings Bonds. And yet, I can't ever seem to get enough based on <a href="http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2014/03/sliding-into-deflation.html" rel="nofollow">the future I see</a>.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527840491496268397.post-4801645578204658492014-03-15T04:05:11.287-07:002014-03-15T04:05:11.287-07:00Anonymous,
Thanks for the tip. I can save myself ...Anonymous,<br /><br />Thanks for the tip. I can save myself the effort of providing a "such as yourself?" disclaimer in the future.<br /><br /><i>This talk about bubbles is getting quite tiresome. Housing will NOT crash and blow away like an internet stock.</i> - <a href="http://jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com/2005/08/million-angry-ex-day-trader-turned.html" rel="nofollow">8/29/2005 4:56 PM</a><br /><br />That was one year after I became a permabear for the first time in my life after seeing so many 0% mortgage teaser rate offers show up in my mailbox. Although my house was paid off, I was utterly captivated and horrified by reading the fine print. One of my largest stock holdings was Citigroup. Although I had held it for years and it treated me well, I sold all my stocks in 2004 convinced that it would not end well. I then put a third of my investment net worth into physical gold and silver until others started to realize what I had.Stagflationary Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04568993350246477976noreply@blogger.com