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Sunday, July 3, 2011

Paper: "Fortune Favours the Bold: An Agent-Based Model Reveals Adaptive Advantages of Overconfidence in War"

"Like other decision-making biases, overconfidence seems detrimental because it increases the frequency and costs of fighting. However, evolutionary biologists have proposed that overconfidence may also confer adaptive advantages: increasing ambition, resolve, persistence, bluffing opponents, and winning net payoffs from risky opportunities despite occasional failures."
CP at 4:21 PM

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