Monday, December 2, 2019

Ideas for 2020 Prediction Contest?

Our contestant Barbarian Capital (mentioned in previous contest post) has some suggestions for the upcoming 2020 prediction contest. Anybody else? Leave a comment below...

Financial (NEW)
- One or more cease to exist in its current form: Grubhub, Uber Eats, Postmates, DoorDash
- Adam Neumann and/or Patrick Byrne is formally charged by the SEC and/or the DOJ
- Bloomberg's stake in Bloomberg LP is sold (agreement signed, not close date)
- Any legal (ie court case) or governmental curtailment of index investing 
- At least one Ivy endowment makes a direct allocation to crypto
- At least one major VC fund ($1 bn+ AUM) is charged by the SEC or DOJ for any reason (ie mis-marking of investments, anti-competitive behavior, aiding and abetting fraud at a porfolio company, etc.)
- UBER + LYFT LTM GAAP loss exceeds $3 bn (as of Dec 2020) Q319 combined was ~$1.5 bn
- Formal anti-trust action against any "Big Tech" member by a federal agency
- Saudi Aramco fails to IPO or loses more than 30% of market cap at any time during 2020
- Sheryl Sandberg is no longer at FB as of 12/31/20
- BRK makes a single $50 bn+ cash acquisition (current cash is $128 bn) 
- Altria writes down JUUL by an additional $4.5 bn+ (invested $12.8; took a $4.5 hit)
- WeWork defaults on any bond or loan 
- At least 2 of the following go into restructuring: CHK WLL ASNA JCP TUP PRTY FTR
- MJ (pot etf) trades below $10 at any time in 2020 ($17 currently)

Finance x Politics (NEW)
- Donald Trump or a family member with confirmed $10+ million in short term capital gains 
- Means testing of any kind introduced for Social Security (for any birth year cohort)
- COLA for Social Security is substantially modified (ie chained CPI)  (for any birth year cohort)  
- Congress passes a bill that presents a major curtailment of cash returns to shareholders (limitations on buybacks and/or dividends)  
- A named executive officer ("NEO") of any US S&P 500 company is detained in Mainland China, Hong Kong or Macau for any reason  
- One or more states establish an "exit tax" for any group of former residents 
- One or more major state pension plans ($50 bn+ in obligations) are placed in any kind of special status 
- At least one new issue sovereign bond goes into default before first scheduled interest payment
- latest FRED for "all transactions house price index for NY-Jersey City- White Plains" is down by 10% of more (current: 295.72)

Politics (NEW)
- Donald Trump selects someone other than Mike Pence for VP candidate 
- One of the two major party presidential candidates endorses UBI
- Bloomberg runs as an independent/third party 
- Hillary Clinton runs for president 
- Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) is not in office by 12/31/20
- Rep. AOC (D-NY) is not in office by 12/31/20
- Sen. Romney (R-UT) votes for DJT impeachment 
- NY Governor Andrew Cuomo is formally charged by the DOJ with corruption-related charges
- NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio is formally charged by the DOJ  with corruption-related charges
- Any current US state votes on secession from the union (referendum or state reps)  
- Alberta becomes the 51st US state 
- Greenland becomes a US territory
- Turkey de facto or de jure leaves NATO
- US and UK sign a comprehensive trade deal by 12/31/2020 
- US introduces a special immigration program for Hong Kong SAR passport holders 
- More than 500 US military and/or law enforcement personnel are deployed in Mexico at once at any time in 2020 

Other (NEW)
- Greta Thunberg is hospitalized for mental or undisclosed/generalized ("exhaustion") reasons 
- At least two Epstein associates are charged with Epstein-related offenses by any government
- US life expectancy declines for a fourth consecutive year (based on most recent data)
- At least one major league pro athlete (NFL/NBA/NHL/MLB/MLS) is involved in a sports betting scandal of any kind 
- Number of Americans giving up US passports is over 5,000 on an LTM basis (sub-3000 LTM now)
- San Francisco poop reports over 35,000/yr on most recent data (25,000 in 2018)
- China wins more medals than the US in the 2020 Olympics (2016: 70 vs. 121)
- Most recent data on the Harvard class Asian ethnicity percentage goes above 28% (22.9% prior year and 25.3% most recent
- Median SAT move by 20 pts +/- (2019 at 1059, 2018 at 1068)
- Martin Shkreli commutation or pardon (by 1/20/2021)


  1. "X number of the following pot companies file BK......"
    "Democratic nominee formally endorses a wealth tax"
    "PROMESA is invalidated by Supreme Court"
    "Two or more cities (or political entities with > $100MM in liabilities) in IL file bankruptcy"
    "Bankruptcies in oil patch (E&P, oil field service, mid stream) measured by liabilities exceed total of 2016"
    "Combined homeless population of San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties is 50% or more of NYC homeless population"

  2. President Trump starts the process to federalize the Fed, no more Fed by 2022.

  3. Mark Cuban enters the 2020 race.

  4. *A competitor during the Summer Olympics passes out due to heat exhaustion

    *A country boycotts the Summer Olympics

    *Team USA mens basketball wins the gold medal at the Summer Olympics

    *A new flight passes Singapore Airlines SQ 21 as the longest passenger flight in the world

    *One of the big 4 sport leagues has a team announce they are moving to a new city

    *Nick Saban retires as head coach of Alabama

  5. -A former or current Clinton associate dies mysteriously and an article about their death receives more than 100 upvotes on r/conspiracy
    -One of Biden, Warren, or Sanders drops out of the race ahead of Super Tuesday.
    -Cannabis is removed from the list of Schedule 1 drugs.
    -Fed funds rate drops below 0%.
    -A referendum or parliamentary vote to leave the EU takes place in another EU country.
    -TSLA below $200 on 12/31/20
    -Any current or former TSLA executive charged with fraud.
    -BYND ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $65.75
    -PTON ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $25.76
    -Gold over $1500 at any point.
    -Any Chinese official charged with crimes against humanity by the Hague
    -Chinese military or police kill more than 10 Hong Kong protesters in a single incident.
    -Trump wins the national popular vote
    -The US openly uses bombs, missiles, or drone strikes in a country besides, Syria, Iraq, Pakistan or Afghanistan.
    -A terrorist attack using commercial drones kills someone in US or Europe.
    -The 2020 Census includes a questions regarding citizenship or undocumented status.
    -At least one company is dropped from the DJIA.
    -The 737 Max 8 begins flying again with or without modifications.
    -Francis is Pope on 12/31/20

  6. Are we at the top yet?


    DJIA, Russell 2000, Nasdaq all end 2020 higher than their highest point(s) in 2019