Most of the possible events ("predictions") did not happen; only 13 did. Of those, seven were "upsets" that were not expected (by the consensus - the average) to happen. The biggest upset by far was the S&P 500 going above 3,000.
Also - please post suggestions for 2020 contest predictions in the comments. We will work on getting that set up over the next week or so.
| Prediction | Happen? | Average | UPSET? |
| * Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of the year. | 1 | 86% | |
| * 2019 US vehicle sales (autos and light trucks/SUVs) are lower than 2018 vehicle sales. | 1 | 63% | |
| * A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year Treasury at any time during the year. | 1 | 60% | |
| * Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL) declines to below $4 trillion. | 1 | 59% | |
| * TSLA share price goes below $200 at any point. | 1 | 56% | |
| * Any of the Democratic presidential debates in 2019 has 12 or more candidates appearing (including undercard). | 1 | 53% | |
| * The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX, 60/40) has a positive return for the year. | 1 | 48% | UPSET |
| * The 20+ year Treasury ETF (TLT) has a positive price return (not including dividends) for the year. | 1 | 42% | UPSET |
| * A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. Mainland (for the third year in a row). | 1 | 34% | UPSET |
| * One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn/Berkowitz leaves asset management in any manner. | 1 | 31% | UPSET |
| * The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) ends the year below 2%. | 1 | 25% | UPSET |
| * Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2019. | 1 | 22% | UPSET |
| * The S&P goes above 3,000 at any time during the year. | 1 | 21% | UPSET |
| * The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 40 at any time during the year. | 0 | 61% | UPSET |
| * A Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S (for the third year in a row). | 0 | 54% | UPSET |
| * A primary challenger to Donald Trump emerges and polls higher than 10%. | 0 | 53% | UPSET |
| * The 13-week T-bill yield ($IRX) exceeds 2.5% at any time during the year. | 0 | 52% | UPSET |
| * Federal Reserve raises target rate two times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2019. | 0 | 52% | UPSET |
| * The BBB yield closes above 5% at any time during the year. | 0 | 52% | UPSET |
| * Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% for the year (including dividends). | 0 | 46% | |
| * Any of GE, JCP, or FTR file for bankruptcy protection or propose a restructuring where existing equity will receive less than 10%. | 0 | 46% | |
| * The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Amazon for the year. | 0 | 43% | |
| * Hussman's fund (HSGFX) is up for the entire year including dividends. | 0 | 42% | |
| * A year with no commercial jet aircraft fatal plane incidents. | 0 | 41% | |
| * Tesla gets a going concern warning, has its auditor resign, or Musk is arrested, indicted, leaves the company, or is fired. | 0 | 38% | |
| * The S&P goes below 2,000 at any time during the year. | 0 | 37% | |
| * Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin for the year. | 0 | 37% | |
| * The 10 year Treasury yield rises above the 2018 high yield of 3.24% at any time during the year. | 0 | 34% | |
| * Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US at end of year: Germany, Italy, Canada. | 0 | 30% | |
| * Donald Trump pardons anyone prosecuted by the Special Counsel. | 0 | 30% | |
| * USDJPY below 100 at any point during the year. | 0 | 30% | |
| * Another Supreme Court seat opens. | 0 | 30% | |
| * One or more of Macron, Trudeau, or Erdogan loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). | 0 | 29% | |
| * Either Buffett or Munger dies. | 0 | 28% | |
| * One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed). | 0 | 27% | |
| * The USD/RMB exchange rate goes over 8 at any time during the year. | 0 | 27% | |
| * Crude (WTIC) trades above the 2018 high of $76.90 at any time during the year. | 0 | 27% | |
| * Any member of Congress posts a video “twerking” (or similar) at the Capitol or in a Congressional building. | 0 | 25% | |
| * The most current 13F as of 12/31/19 of the Swiss National Bank shows a balance below $45 billion of equities. | 0 | 25% | |
| * A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) at any time during the year. | 0 | 24% | |
| * A Decacorn (nonpublic company, peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud. | 0 | 20% | |
| * None of Uber, Lyft, Slack, Pinterest, Robin Hood, or Palantir complete an IPO or direct list their shares. | 0 | 20% | |
| * Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion at any time during the year. | 0 | 19% | |
| * The S&P has a one day percentage decline greater than 7.5%. | 0 | 19% | |
| * Jerome Powell is no longer Fed Chairman on 12/31/19. | 0 | 17% | |
| * Trump announces that he won't run again in 2020. | 0 | 17% | |
| * Gold trades below $1000/oz at any time during the year. | 0 | 16% | |
| * The S&P has a one day percentage increase greater than 7.5%. | 0 | 16% | |
| * The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds its 2008 record of 89.53 at any time during the year. | 0 | 14% | |
| * USDJPY above 130 at any point during the year. | 0 | 14% | |
| * Gold trades above $2000/oz at any time during the year. | 0 | 13% | |
| * Any country leaves the Euro currency. | 0 | 13% | |
| * Pelosi is no longer the Speaker of House as of 12/31/19. | 0 | 12% | |
| * An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater affects the continental United States. | 0 | 12% | |
| * The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any time during the year. | 0 | 12% | |
| * The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% at any time during the year. | 0 | 10% | |
| * Twitter is taken private. | 0 | 10% | |
| * Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL) increase to above $5 trillion. | 0 | 9% | |
| * A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL). | 0 | 9% | |
| * Crude (WTIC) falls below the “modern” low of $26.05 at any time during the year. | 0 | 7% | |
| * Any sort of #MeToo allegation is made against Warren Buffett in a mainstream newspaper. | 0 | 6% | |
| * Western Canadian Select trades at a premium to WTI at any time during the year. | 0 | 6% | |
| * Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1 trillion at any time during the year. | 0 | 5% | |
| * The S&P has its largest one day percentage decline in history (bigger than 10/19/87 of 20.5%). | 0 | 4% | |
| * US ends daylight savings time. | 0 | 3% | |
| * Musk's “Boring Company” is revealed to be digging tunnels to smuggle drugs into the United States. | 0 | 1% | |
| * A nuclear weapon is used in anger. | 0 | 1% |
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