Monday, December 2, 2019

Ideas for 2020 Prediction Contest?

Our contestant Barbarian Capital (mentioned in previous contest post) has some suggestions for the upcoming 2020 prediction contest. Anybody else? Leave a comment below...

Financial (NEW)
- One or more cease to exist in its current form: Grubhub, Uber Eats, Postmates, DoorDash
- Adam Neumann and/or Patrick Byrne is formally charged by the SEC and/or the DOJ
- Bloomberg's stake in Bloomberg LP is sold (agreement signed, not close date)
- Any legal (ie court case) or governmental curtailment of index investing 
- At least one Ivy endowment makes a direct allocation to crypto
- At least one major VC fund ($1 bn+ AUM) is charged by the SEC or DOJ for any reason (ie mis-marking of investments, anti-competitive behavior, aiding and abetting fraud at a porfolio company, etc.)
- UBER + LYFT LTM GAAP loss exceeds $3 bn (as of Dec 2020) Q319 combined was ~$1.5 bn
- Formal anti-trust action against any "Big Tech" member by a federal agency
- Saudi Aramco fails to IPO or loses more than 30% of market cap at any time during 2020
- Sheryl Sandberg is no longer at FB as of 12/31/20
- BRK makes a single $50 bn+ cash acquisition (current cash is $128 bn) 
- Altria writes down JUUL by an additional $4.5 bn+ (invested $12.8; took a $4.5 hit)
- WeWork defaults on any bond or loan 
- At least 2 of the following go into restructuring: CHK WLL ASNA JCP TUP PRTY FTR
- MJ (pot etf) trades below $10 at any time in 2020 ($17 currently)

Finance x Politics (NEW)
- Donald Trump or a family member with confirmed $10+ million in short term capital gains 
- Means testing of any kind introduced for Social Security (for any birth year cohort)
- COLA for Social Security is substantially modified (ie chained CPI)  (for any birth year cohort)  
- Congress passes a bill that presents a major curtailment of cash returns to shareholders (limitations on buybacks and/or dividends)  
- A named executive officer ("NEO") of any US S&P 500 company is detained in Mainland China, Hong Kong or Macau for any reason  
- One or more states establish an "exit tax" for any group of former residents 
- One or more major state pension plans ($50 bn+ in obligations) are placed in any kind of special status 
- At least one new issue sovereign bond goes into default before first scheduled interest payment
- latest FRED for "all transactions house price index for NY-Jersey City- White Plains" is down by 10% of more (current: 295.72)

Politics (NEW)
- Donald Trump selects someone other than Mike Pence for VP candidate 
- One of the two major party presidential candidates endorses UBI
- Bloomberg runs as an independent/third party 
- Hillary Clinton runs for president 
- Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) is not in office by 12/31/20
- Rep. AOC (D-NY) is not in office by 12/31/20
- Sen. Romney (R-UT) votes for DJT impeachment 
- NY Governor Andrew Cuomo is formally charged by the DOJ with corruption-related charges
- NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio is formally charged by the DOJ  with corruption-related charges
- Any current US state votes on secession from the union (referendum or state reps)  
- Alberta becomes the 51st US state 
- Greenland becomes a US territory
- Turkey de facto or de jure leaves NATO
- US and UK sign a comprehensive trade deal by 12/31/2020 
- US introduces a special immigration program for Hong Kong SAR passport holders 
- More than 500 US military and/or law enforcement personnel are deployed in Mexico at once at any time in 2020 

Other (NEW)
- Greta Thunberg is hospitalized for mental or undisclosed/generalized ("exhaustion") reasons 
- At least two Epstein associates are charged with Epstein-related offenses by any government
- US life expectancy declines for a fourth consecutive year (based on most recent data)
- At least one major league pro athlete (NFL/NBA/NHL/MLB/MLS) is involved in a sports betting scandal of any kind 
- Number of Americans giving up US passports is over 5,000 on an LTM basis (sub-3000 LTM now)
- San Francisco poop reports over 35,000/yr on most recent data (25,000 in 2018)
- China wins more medals than the US in the 2020 Olympics (2016: 70 vs. 121)
- Most recent data on the Harvard class Asian ethnicity percentage goes above 28% (22.9% prior year and 25.3% most recent
- Median SAT move by 20 pts +/- (2019 at 1059, 2018 at 1068)
- Martin Shkreli commutation or pardon (by 1/20/2021)


Gotham said...

"X number of the following pot companies file BK......"
"Democratic nominee formally endorses a wealth tax"
"PROMESA is invalidated by Supreme Court"
"Two or more cities (or political entities with > $100MM in liabilities) in IL file bankruptcy"
"Bankruptcies in oil patch (E&P, oil field service, mid stream) measured by liabilities exceed total of 2016"
"Combined homeless population of San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties is 50% or more of NYC homeless population"

Anonymous said...

President Trump starts the process to federalize the Fed, no more Fed by 2022.

Anonymous said...

Mark Cuban enters the 2020 race.

rick diamond said...

*A competitor during the Summer Olympics passes out due to heat exhaustion

*A country boycotts the Summer Olympics

*Team USA mens basketball wins the gold medal at the Summer Olympics

*A new flight passes Singapore Airlines SQ 21 as the longest passenger flight in the world

*One of the big 4 sport leagues has a team announce they are moving to a new city

*Nick Saban retires as head coach of Alabama

A Christian V said...

-A former or current Clinton associate dies mysteriously and an article about their death receives more than 100 upvotes on r/conspiracy
-One of Biden, Warren, or Sanders drops out of the race ahead of Super Tuesday.
-Cannabis is removed from the list of Schedule 1 drugs.
-Fed funds rate drops below 0%.
-A referendum or parliamentary vote to leave the EU takes place in another EU country.
-TSLA below $200 on 12/31/20
-Any current or former TSLA executive charged with fraud.
-BYND ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $65.75
-PTON ends the year below its IPO day closing price of $25.76
-Gold over $1500 at any point.
-Any Chinese official charged with crimes against humanity by the Hague
-Chinese military or police kill more than 10 Hong Kong protesters in a single incident.
-Trump wins the national popular vote
-The US openly uses bombs, missiles, or drone strikes in a country besides, Syria, Iraq, Pakistan or Afghanistan.
-A terrorist attack using commercial drones kills someone in US or Europe.
-The 2020 Census includes a questions regarding citizenship or undocumented status.
-At least one company is dropped from the DJIA.
-The 737 Max 8 begins flying again with or without modifications.
-Francis is Pope on 12/31/20

eahilf said...

Are we at the top yet?


DJIA, Russell 2000, Nasdaq all end 2020 higher than their highest point(s) in 2019