Friday, October 19, 2007

Weekend Roundup: Standard Pacific, Dollar Lows, Phoenix Residential Stagnation

Quick facts before the weekend:

  • Dollar index hit an all time low today. It has lost about 3% since the September rate cut. I am long Euros through FXE, which is yielding 3.36%.
  • Someone from a Standard Pacific Homes IP address just did a Google search for "standard pacific bankruptcy." For those of you new to the site, Credit Bubble Stocks does offer continuing coverage of Standard Pacific. I have continually rated SPF a "sell" since March and still own the puts. The homebuilder stocks rallied today on the strength of a 12% rise in orders at NVR. Points:
    • A 12% rise in orders is not that meaningful. How many will close?
    • NVR is the best positioned builder. Their slight strength doesn't imply anything about SPF. They build in practically opposite markets. I bought puts into the SPF and Beazer strength today.
  • Valley resale market enters holiday slowdown. Matches the projection from my October 3 post, meaning that Phoenix metro has a massive inventory overhang.


Anonymous said...

How do you know that somebody from an SPF IP address did the search? Not doubting you (also have puts on SPF), just curious. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Have you ever read the Value Investor Club article on the short thesis for NVR?

The short-seller basically said that NVR does not seem to be as good a company as what its numbers are telling us. It's a good read. Let us know what you think.

G said...

Thanks for mentioning the FXE, I just dumped 1/3 of my savings account in it. I'd rather hold Euros at 3.7% than dollars at 4.7%, the current rate on etrade's savings account.

The expense ratio of only 0.4% is very reasonable.

Are there ways to buy Chinese currency bonds via a ETF like this?

CP said...

- Server logs show an IP address that is owned by Stan Pac. I can't tell who it is, so don't worry about that. It happened for a second time again today. My guess is that it is a lower level person hearing chatter and trying to figure out what is going on.

- I haven't studied NVR much, other than to see that they have a healthy backlog and decent liquidity. My view remains that SPF, BZH, and HOV are the best bets against the builders right now.

- There is no Yuan ETF that I am aware of. I could wish for a Norwegian krone ETF also.