Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Weak October Retail Sales in California

From the California State Controller's Office:

The actual year-over-year increase [in California General Fund revenue was] $72 million (1.5%). Retail sales tax receipts were $94 million (-8.7%) below last October.
The General Fund revenue increase was clearly below inflation, so negative in real terms. October's year-over-year sales tax decline follows a 7% y-o-y decline in September.

California's GDP is larger than all but seven countries in the world. The last time California sales tax receipts dipped (2001), there was a recession in the U.S.

From a Census Bureau statistical brief (.pdf, July 1993):
The 1990-1991 recession was particularly challenging for State government finances. For fiscal year 1991, States experienced only a 3.3 percent rate of tax growth - the smallest rate of increase following the 1957-58 recession.
Now that SPF is all over but the crying (subordinated note is yielding 46.6%!), I am going to start shifting focus to weak retailers and manufacturers that cater to what Russ Winter calls "Joe Soccer Mom."

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