Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Another Leg Down is Coming

I think there will be at least one more big leg down. I see numerous potential catalysts; here are two:

  • CFC (or the creditors) file a BK petition
  • bank failures, e.g. VNBC, BKUNA, and DSL
Check out the deterioration in the (enormous) CFC option-ARM portfolio. (Calculated Risk did a post on this today. Also read the comments on that post. Institutional Risk Analytics has the best coverage of CFC right now.

I suspect that Friday 8/8 was an FDIC vacation; not the end of the bank failure trend.

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