Sunday, December 28, 2008


From the New York Times:

Regarding the new administration’s stimulus plan, Mr. Axelrod also said that the exact dollar amount Mr. Obama will seek has not yet been determined. “We’ve talked about a package from $675 billion to $775 billion,” he said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

“One thing I think everyone agrees on, economists from left to right, is that we have to do something very large,” he said.

The president-elect also intends to follow through quickly on his promise for tax relief for most Americans, Mr. Axelrod said, this time on “Meet the Press.” As for repealing the Bush tax cut for the wealthiest Americans, he said that whether it was repealed early or allowed to expire as scheduled at the end of 2010, the tax cut would eventually disappear.

“It’s going to go, it has to go,” he said.
There were 135,660,228 federal tax returns filed in 2006 but 43,362,718 had "Zero or Negative Tax Liability", so only 92,297,510 actually pay any tax.

The "package" of $775 billion is almost $8,400 per taxpayer. Someone named "Axelrod" proposes to spend that much of my money. A group of Chicago crooks think they can allocate that much of my capital better than I can.

Only economists who are dopes think that we "have to do something very large." An intelligent or honest one would realize that money comes from somewhere. The government diverts it from a first-best use and will squander it on an inferior alternative.

Actually, they will probably use it to subsidize the reproduction of more dopes who get themselves in troubles that require a bailout, and who elect politicians to steal my capital.


Anonymous said...

Wondering what your opinion on today's light volume bear market rally? I'm losing big on puts on cof, hig, cat, spg, x, and spy.

Do you think this "rally" has any legs, or do you believe there will be a sell off starting friday?

I made the mistake of buying Jan puts and they are really dropping in value. I just can't understand how we rally with worst consumer confidence and worst home prices.

Good Luck and Happy New Year.

CP said...

I think the rally is a joke. Anytime a decent stock (BGC) vastly underperforms a garbage stock (MPG), to me it is another sign of our broken market. Result: bearish.

That being said, you need to have staying power. Buying front month puts is problematic. I own Jan puts that are deep in the money that I don't want to sell for tax reasons. But I would never buy OTM front month puts just to watch the premium evaporate.

I have no idea when the next selloff will commence. All I believe is that most of my shorts will be zeros a year from now. So I am patient.