Friday, February 6, 2009


Big rally today, obviously.

"Timmmmay" Geithner is supposedly announcing a plan on Monday afternoon. What a credulous group of investors we have to bid up garbage equities so much on such a flimsy basis.

I shorted more REITs (MPG, MHGC, MAC). I am increasingly bearish on the office, hotel, and retail REITs based on what I see in the restructuring business.

President Obama's economic recovery package will actually hurt the economy more in the long run than if he were to do nothing, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.


Dimitris said...

Concerning BBY:

Costco warned the Street that earnings for the quarter will be "'"substantially below' analysts' expectations because of weak non-food sales and slumping margins" according to the WSJ.

Best Buy's weekly ads are a good example of "slumping margins", and are screaming deflation. For example, Best Buy has an offer for a laptop, mouse, and a ubs drive - all for $399.

In my view, the upside for BBY appears to be limited considering the stock has run up 80% from its Nov lows. Although, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of moving even higher in the short-term. That is, if the market moves higher.

I'm afraid CNBC may start pumping that the recession will be over by Spring/Summer if the market reacts positively to Geithner on Monday and breaks through the 50 day moving average. Then we'll be hearing a lot of ... "the worst is behind us, the market is a discount mechanism, the market looks forward, the bottom is in, bla bla bla ... .

Nice call on COF and best of luck

CP said...

Yes, BBY has good "resistance" at 30. During the height of the credit/MEW-spending bubble it never hit 60.

I am not tooo worried about the rally continuing much longer. The gyrations and the spread of the depression meme are very bearish.