Monday, February 1, 2010

Bearish Indicators

Mutual funds are heavily invested in the rally - their levels of cash as a percentage of assets are at record lows. Historically this has been a good indicator of a top.

Investment bankers are using derivatives trades to lock in today's prices on their bonuses that were paid in restricted shares.

Federal government receipts are not improving the way you would expect in an economic recovery.

Part of my current thesis is that a selloff in risky assets would benefit the federal government because they could sell more Treasuries and refinance the debt. Treasuries will be easier to sell if other vehicles are less attractive, and behold, money market funds are now able to suspend redemptions.

Positioning: I sold more REG today and bought more TLT calls.

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