How Much Longer Will this Bounce Last?

Signs that the bounce is getting tired:

• Today's equity put/call buying ratio on the CBOE was 0.56 (yesterday's was 0.49). Those are about one standard deviation below the mean for the last three years. 
• The AAII sentiment numbers turned much more bullish. 
• Fabulous contrary indicator Barton Biggs turned bullish.
• There is lots of crazy M&A activity.
• This bounce has been on low volume - as ever the case with the great 2009-2010 bear market rally.
• Only the "economically sensitive" garbage stocks have bounced significantly. Things that would actually do well if there was a recovery, like the oil&gas sector, have been basically flat.

Thus, I would argue that the market has not bottomed, either in the short-term or the long-term. In fact, I expect the market to roll over again pretty soon.

Remember, the Treasury needs to chase investors into long-term Treasury notes and bonds. The best way to do that is with an equities market that is falling.