Tuesday, October 5, 2010

You Can't Fix Stupid - Mexico Issues 100 Year Bonds

In the news today:

Mexico plans to sell $500 million of bonds due in 100 years in overseas markets in the country’s longest-maturity debt issue. The government may sell the bonds to yield about 6.1 percent as soon as today, said a person familiar with the transaction.
It's hard to express how stupid you would have to be to lend money to Mexico at a fixed interest rate for a century.
The peso was trading at about $12.5 MXP to $1 USD, when in the late 1980's, it began a period of hyperinflation due to rapid government printing of paper money, mostly to finance social programs. The hyperinflation created economic chaos within the country and led to continual devaluations of the currency in the global markets. The peso devalued from 12.5 to about 3000 pesos for $1 USD in a few years. In 1993, Mexican government under Carlos Salinas de Gortari lopped off the three zeros, creating the Nuevo Peso (New Peso, MXN) at about MXN 3 $1 USD. The peso has continued to inflate/devalue from that MXN 3 to $1 USD, to about MXN 13 for USD $1 (early 2010). The peso thus appears to have been holding its value over the last 25 years (an apparent change of only 12.5 to 13 for $1 USD); when in reality, the dollar's value has increased by over 100,000 percent. As of early 2010, the Mexican government continues to fight a slowly losing battle against inflation as the peso continues to inch up against the USD. (In 2009 alone, it went from 10 to 1 to 12 to 1.) [wiki]
I might loan money to Mexico for a couple hours, but a century is maybe not a great investment idea?

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