Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Please Tell Me You Aren't Buying Allied Irish Banks (AIB)

There seems to be traffic coming here because I mentioned Allied Irish Banks (AIB) as my new market stupidity index in this afternoon's post.

Please, tell me you people aren't interested in buying AIB.

The subordinated debt of AIB trades at very distressed yields. (Even Irish sovereign debt trades at rather distressed yields!) Normally, we would arbitrage the discrepancy between AIB debt - implying failure - and AIB equity - implying value for shareholders.

However, I don't know anything about Irish bankruptcy law or whether their bonds are governed by something like our Trust Indenture Act, so to blunder into that situation would be asking to get jammed.

Happy Thanksgiving.

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