Friday, March 4, 2011

Call Buying

Call buying of 156 on the ISEE index, which is pretty high for a down day. Complacency means that an unexpected surprise is coming for bulls.

12 comments:

whydibuy said...

Yeah, even bigger gains than they expect!!

Everything is a negative with you bears. Improving jobs is a real downer for that coming apocalypse.

Must be a miserable existence to always await the doomsday that never comes.

CP said...

Tell us about some of your favorite long ideas.

Taylor Conant said...

I prefer my surprises to be expected.

getyourselfconnected said...

I bought calls for 1-900-XXX-XXXX but I lost a ton of money. No leverage though.

LangoneRedStudyGroup said...

whydibuy,

You sound now just like you did in 2005-2006 when you claimed housing would be fine

http://jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com/2005/08/million-angry-ex-day-trader-turned.html

How much of your original portfolio is left, anyhow? Are you close to even yet?

getyourselfconnected said...

@LRG, that was funny.

LangoneRedStudyGroup said...

My favorite quote from whydibuy: "This talk about bubbles is getting quite tiresome. Housing will NOT crash and blow away like an internet stock. Housing bubble blah, blah, blah. I and nearly everybody I know also has a house paid for free and clear or has a modest mortgage. Exactly where are all these bubble people? And finally, its very reassuring perversely that when everybody is fretting over something, its not going to happen. Give it a rest already"

Boy, this sounds familiar.

getyourselfconnected said...

Now that's just mean! Funny as all get out, but mean. When I think of all the crap I have said over the years I get worried. I do remember this one though from August 30th 2010:
"The SLV chart is attractive and I think it is going to resolve one way or the other very soon, maybe in 1-3 weeks. At today's close of about $18.40 I am looking for an upside move past $22 and maybe even a run to $24. If the resolution goes to the downside a fast drop to $16 could occur. I like the risk/reward profile of this trade."
I cleaned up on this trade at around $22 but boy did I miss the rest! I still have ample physcial stores though.

whydibuy said...

True, this real estate bubble we've experienced seemed to be heavily fueled by everyone from the mortgage brokers to the appraisers to the homebuyers screwing the capital lenders with BS info. It makes me wonder how long a lending system can continue to function under those kinds of conditions. Yet at the same time I'm reading about the fraudfest in real estate, I read money mgrs like Ken Fisher dismiss the bubble as media hype. Hard landing? Soft landing? He says there won't be any landing whatsoever. I certainly respect guys like him but to say that the contraction in available credit won't affect housing I find totally delusional. By his logic, requiring people to pay cash out of pocket would not affect pricing. Pu-Leeze. Or Seth Glickenhous who back in the fall in a Barrons article laughed off the housing bubble talk with the comment, " you would have had to have been on another planet not to hear all the talk about the housing bubble" . He was considering the mortgage lenders then as a contrarian play. I guess he was on another planet to not see the crap happening before his eyes. I respect these guys but when I read stuff like that, it sure makes me think we're a long way from the washout bottom. If they're blind to it the guys actually lending money out at banks and HF's probably are too. This subprime stuff reminds me alot of the junk bond times of Mike Milken. Sure, subprime before the elimination of any and all standards was not overly risky. Just like junk bonds pre milken were not that bad as shown by historical returns. Only Milken redefined what a junk bond was. Junk in the sense of high probabilty of default. Just like the subslime mortgages put out since about '01.
4/25/2007 8:02 PM

whydibuy said...

That last post is what I said in '07. Quite insightful of what was to come.
And the reason I have such disdain for so called experts.

Nice try, Red, but as you can read, I got it right. And your experts walked into it with eyes wide shut.

LangoneRedStudyGroup said...

Hahahaha. Case-Shiller peaked in 05-06. It was already negative in 07. This is like calling the stock market crash in 2009.

By the way, who exactly are "My Experts" that you're referring to? I was bearish on housing in the same post (author name C. Fischer) where you were claiming there was no bubble.

Like CP, I'm still waiting for your favorite long ideas.

Anonymous said...

My favorite quote from whydibuy: "This talk about bubbles is getting quite tiresome. Housing will NOT crash and blow away like an internet stock. Housing bubble blah, blah, blah. I and nearly everybody I know also has a house paid for free and clear or has a modest mortgage. Exactly where are all these bubble people? And finally, its very reassuring perversely that when everybody is fretting over something, its not going to happen. Give it a rest already"