Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Obviously, San Francisco Fed President Williams Has Never Heard of "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News"

In his speech today, Maintaining Price Stability in a Global Economy, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Williams said:

Economists at the San Francisco Fed recently looked at how commodity prices reacted when the Fed announced new policy actions to stimulate the economy. If Fed policies were responsible for the commodity price boom, then we should have seen those prices jump when the Fed announced more monetary stimulus. In fact, the researchers found that, if anything, commodity prices fell after new policy announcements and were not pushed higher by news about Fed policy. So, I don’t see any convincing evidence that monetary policy has played a significant role in the huge surge in commodity prices.
The problem with their approach is that, before the Fed does anything, they have their puppets do a speaking tour/trial balloon campaign and they leak the details to financial journalists.

Traders hear about the Fed liquidity plans and buy the rumor. Then they sell the news. 

Williams has been with the Fed since 1994. As far as I can tell, he has never had a real job. He probably doesn't know about "buy the rumor, sell the news". He needs a Credit Bubble Stocks lesson in Applied Cynicism.

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