Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Commercial Real Estate and the Greater Depression

From a Credit Bubble Stocks correspondent:

I judge that we have been in a serious depression for more than three years. I base this partly on the collapse of prices of residential real estate, which started in 2007.

I also base this partly on the huge vacancy rates that I see in commercial buildings. More than half of the commercial buildings in some areas are vacant. This includes warehouses, light manufacturing, office space and retail. Most of these vacancies represent bankrupt businesses and mass unemployment.

There is a three-block stretch of road that had 10 different car dealers at the start of this depression. By last December it was down to five dealers, with no activity in the five empty dealerships.


Taylor Conant said...

I second this and note how odd it is that ETFs like SRS, as poorly constructed as they are, have had to reverse split over and over again because the commercial real estate bubble never seemed to officially pop.

If/when it does, what does that mean for big banks, once again? Think they have reserved enough for this?

I see for sale signs on lawns and for lease signs in windows and I don't see them coming down, everywhere I have traveled in this country for the last two years.

CP said...

It's game over for the banks if commercial real estate prices fall significantly. I wonder whether they have been honest with themselves about the degree to which prices have already fallen?

Taylor Conant said...

Of course they haven't. They haven't even gotten honest about residential write-offs.

Fraudconomy. Bearish disaster still awaits.