An article quoting Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov's analysis of Suntech:
Molchanov said if the company was a non-Chinese PV manufacturer it would already be bankrupt. [...P]ossible outcomes that he sees. Outcome #1 (50% probability): Heavily dilutive equity issuance; Outcome #2 (35% probability): Bankruptcy; Outcome #3 (15% probability): Non-dilutive outcome.So 85% chance of the stock price getting crushed. That is similar to what I think, but I would argue that the probability of bankruptcy is much higher than the probability of equity issuance. We have just about run out of time to restructure the notes outside of bankruptcy.
Citi has started coverage of Suntech with a sell rating and $1.50 price target. I've seen the report and it's more focused on picking winners in solar than predicting what is going to happen with the STP debt maturity (which it hardly mentions). Still, it may just be their polite way of saying the stock is going to zero.