Sunday, June 8, 2014

Latest Hussman

It's hard to argue with this:

"Last week, Investors Intelligence reported that bullish sentiment surged above 60%, coupled with a 5-year high in the S&P 500 and valuations beyond 18 times record trailing earnings. The same combination was last seen the week of the October 2007 market peak, last seen before that in January and May 1999 (which we should emphasize was good for only a 5% correction in the short run before a choppy run to the 2000 peak, but would still leave the S&P 500 more than 40% lower three years later), last seen before that the week of the August 1987 pre-crash peak, and last seen before that in January 1973, just before the S&P 500 lost half of its value."
By definition, with market circumstances as described above, and credit spreads so narrow and investors so complacent (STLFSI), no one should be buying.

Why does this happen? Most people feel like they have to buy out of yield hunger or institutional imperative.

1 comment:

whydibuy said...

Hows that GIGANTIC short call position Hussman had in Feb. working out for him ?
OOOPS, the market is climbing that wall of worry that Hussman ran into with his fund. I pity those who are in what is left of Hussman's fund.