Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Chart of New Highs Minus New Lows

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Fewer and fewer net new highs even with market rallying this year. Bearish indicator.


Stagflationary Mark said...

I see your very ugly chart and raise you one.

A Parabolic Headwind for Our Long-Term Service Economy

The following chart shows the 10-year moving average of personal consumption expenditures for services divided by disposable personal income.

A nearly perfect parabola (r-squared = 0.99951) was lurking in that data, and we're pretty much at the peak of it.

This does not bode well for the long-term future of our service economy growth (relative to past growth).

And in any event, as seen in the chart, it is certainly nothing like the 1980s and 1990s. That era is so over, temporary cyclical business cycles notwithstanding.

CP said...


I really think you are on to something with failed parabolic trends.

It's making better predictions than macro hedge funds.