Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Late Entry to the 2015 Prediction Contest

A correspondent with a late arriving prediction for the 2015 contest:

German chancellor Angela Merkel tried to speak to a German crowd. But the crowd punished her for her support of American sanctions against Russia. The crowd booed her so loudly that she could not be heard, even with a public address system. The crowd booed her until she gave up and left the stage after more than 13 minutes of booing.

Anti-foreigner protesters march in Dresden and in other cities all over Germany, every week, in what they call "evening strolls." The number of marchers in Dresden has doubled six times in about nine weeks.

The speed of this development is driven by hardship caused to ordinary German people by American sanctions against Russia. This speed approaches the speed of events that led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

  • There is an 80-percent chance the German people will force Merkel from office in 2015.
  • There is an 80-percent chance Germany will leave NATO in 2015.
  • There is an 80-percent chance China will sell the bulk of its U.S. treasuries in 2015.
  • There is an 80-percent chance that Turkey will leave NATO in 2015.
  • There is an 80-percent chance that the National Front Party in France will become part of a ruling government coalition in 2015
The next German federal election is in 2017, so while there are ways for a parliamentary government to lose control before an election, it doesn't seem like an 80 percent likelihood. I would certainly pay $0.20 for a $1 bond that paid if Merkel was still Chancellor at the end of next year.

1 comment:

High Plateau Drifter said...

Wow! Angela Merkel out in Germany and the National Front in charge of France!! Germany and Turkey out of NATO!!

And I though my prediction that Russian small caps would bottom some time in 2015 and become the best investment of the next 10 years would be controversial!!

CB, you have managed to attract a throng of original thinkers on this blog - an amazing achievement.