Sunday, June 28, 2015

Good Example of Defeated Bear

I like fellow bear Tim Knight. Here's how little faith he has that bailouts and pretending can't go on forever:

I’m not going to tempt the market gods by gloating, though. Naysayers and bear-haters have been victorious for all these years, and they seem stone-cold certain that nothing is going to be different. Here’s the chap who sneeringly called my good trades “occasional winners” (which has become a permanent meme around here) and his take on things as of Friday:


James said...

I actually agree with Knight's bullish naysayer/troll. Tsipras campaigned on an anti-austerity message, and that put him in an untenable position when the creditors wouldn't give further concessions. Few Greeks want to leave the Euro, so holding a referendum lets him accede to the creditors' demands while saving face ("We didn't want to do this, but the people have spoken").

Maybe the capital controls will fatally undermine confidence, but I think a more likely outcome is that Greece will vote yes and things will stabilize again at a lower level and the charade will continue. If/when the market cracks, I expect it to be from a pot that no one's watching instead of Greece.

James said...

Here is Varoufakis's latest article:

These are solid reasons why our government does not consider it has a mandate to accept the institutions’ proposal or to use its majority in Parliament in order to push it through and onto the statutes.

At the same time, we do not have a mandate to turn down the institutions’ proposals either, cognizant of the critical moment in history we find ourselves in...

If the people gives us a clear instruction to sign up on the institutions’ proposals, we shall do whatever it takes to do so – even if it means a reconfigured government.