Friday, August 21, 2015

Impending Crash

Bull market not looking so hot (S&P 500). The great divergence between SPX/DJIA and Dow Transports has been going on since November 2014.

Notice also the steady decline in net new highs. Today there are no new highs.

Is the EXXI blip over? The holding company note due 2018 last traded at 8 cents - current yield of 37.5%.

The BTU stock got squeezed back to the 50MA. However, the BTU sub note was only up a couple points to 13 cents - still a current yield of 36%. Even the second lien note traded at under 44 cents today!

It's great to see crude oil below $41. Equities are the dumbest market and bonds and energy are smarter; maybe oil is sending a message people should listen to?

4 comments:

Unknown said...

I think breadth is an overrated indicator. In 1994, the S&P only fell 7-8% from its high but breadth was terrible and some sectors had enormous carnage. Stocks finished 94 flat and were up 30-40% the next year. I don't expect stocks to rise 30% next year, but I don't think it's a slam dunk that this is the start of a crash either.

CP said...

Don't forget the terrible performance of junk bonds:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNK&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34337259145

CP said...

See how the BRICs have plummeted:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BKF&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84497267532

PetroChina at a five+ year low:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PTR&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53904653469

MLPs and REITs topped a long time ago:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=amlp&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68938880234
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=iyr&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68938880234

Unknown said...

See how the BRICs have plummeted:

MLPs and REITs topped a long time ago:


'94 had the Tequila Crisis and yield vehicles fell as long-term rates rose.