Monday, December 21, 2015

Since It's A Slow Week... Credit Bubble Stocks Reader Poll

A correspondent sent this in:

Would you go long or short the following from current levels (assuming you must hold for at least three years):

  1. Long-dated oil futures
  2. Martin Shkreli
  3. A spot-priced commodity basket
  4. helium futures (if they existed)
  5. Any current republican candidate (write in which one)
  6. long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures
  7. Berkshire Hathaway equity
  8. AAPL equity
  9. VRX
  10. HLF
  11. The US Capital Gains tax rate
  12. The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations
  13. A basket of equity in the TBTF banks
  14. LUK
  15. Canadian Looney
  16. Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD
  17. write-in
Answer in the comments.

20 comments:

wildcat said...


LONG - Long-dated oil futures
LONG - Martin Shkreli
LONG - A spot-priced commodity basket
LONG - helium futures (if they existed)
SHORT TRUMP - Any current republican candidate (write in which one)
LONG - long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures
LONG - Berkshire Hathaway equity
SHORT - AAPL equity
SHORT - VRX
SHORT - HLF
LONG - The US Capital Gains tax rate
SHORT - The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations
SHORT - A basket of equity in the TBTF banks
LONG - LUK
LONG - Canadian Looney
SHORT - Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD
LONG TWTR - write-in

CP said...

1) Long-dated oil futures > Reluctantly long. I think this will be a consensus trade.

2) Martin Shkreli > Not sure what index this is, but "short".

3) A spot-priced commodity basket > Short

4) helium futures (if they existed) > Long (consensus?)

5) Any current republican candidate (write in which one) > Long Trump

6) long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures > Long I suppose. More consensus.

7) Berkshire Hathaway equity > Short! This is the first one that I would consider actually putting on.

8) AAPL equity > Short.

9) VRX > Short.

10) HLF > Long.

11) The US Capital Gains tax rate > I don't think it will change too soon. Short a straddle.

12) The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations > Short the rate. Trump will get this done.

13) A basket of equity in the TBTF banks > Short.

14) LUK > Short.

15) Canadian Looney > Short (vs USD)

16) Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD > Short!

Anonymous said...

1) Long-dated oil futures > long

2) Martin Shkreli > long RTRX/Turing/KBIO, short Shkreli himself (so long CXW corrections corp)

3) A spot-priced commodity basket > long

4) helium futures (if they existed) > long

5) Any current republican candidate (write in which one) > Long Cruz, Short Rubio pair trade

6) long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures > long

7) Berkshire Hathaway equity > short

8) AAPL equity > short

9) VRX > short

10) HLF > short

11) The US Capital Gains tax rate >already going up with the Obamacare surcharge, long increasing tax rate

12) The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations > long, will happen

13) A basket of equity in the TBTF banks > long

14) LUK > short

15) Canadian Looney > short

16) Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD > short

CP said...

I think my "portfolio" will outperform wildcat. TWTR long pick is maybe your worst idea.

CP said...

By the way - scoring of the 2015 prediction contest will be this week. Lots of you did terribly!

http://www.creditbubblestocks.com/2014/12/predictions-for-2015-from-readership-80.html

wildcat said...

"hollywood" gets a big shot at this 2015 prediction today:

Elon Musk completes a controlled vertical landing of a Falcon rocket on land.

CP said...

Yes, I think he may get 5 right if that happens? Not much time to go!

Walter said...

1) Long-dated oil futures > long
2) Martin Shkreli > gotta be cheap now. he's going to jail, not to zero. long
3) A spot-priced commodity basket > short
4) helium futures (if they existed) > long
5) Any current republican candidate (write in which one) > Trump, short
6) long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures > long
7) Berkshire Hathaway equity > long
8) AAPL equity > short
9) VRX > short
10) HLF > long
11) The US Capital Gains tax rate > neither
12) The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations > short
13) A basket of equity in the TBTF banks > long
14) LUK > short
15) Canadian Looney > short
16) Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD > short
17) Write-in: Chinese Yuan, short

CP said...

Long oil is so consensus!

Neutral Zone Capitalist said...

Answers assume I'm forced to choose with gun to my head

1) Long-dated oil futures > Also reluctantly long, particularly since it goes lower first before it goes higher

2) Martin Shkreli > It would depend on the borrow cost, but I want to short cause he is a zero

3) A spot-priced commodity basket > Long, but this is a minimum sized bet

4) helium futures (if they existed) > Outcome chosen based on results of coin flip

5) Any current republican candidate (write in which one) > would depend on whether we are talking nomination or general election. If republican nomination only, short the entire field other than Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush. It matters not the odds, none have a chance. You can currently get great odds on Carson, so short him twice. If it weren't for the 3 year hold requirement, long Bush, but only for a trade, as his numbers will go higher for a time some once the voting starts and the field begins to shrink. If we are talking about the general election, then short ALL republicans as Hillary will win (this is a bet, not a vote)

6) long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures > maybe consensus, but very, very long. Then once, my republican, Skkreli, HLF prop bet and VRX shorts pay off, use proceeds to double down on long position

7) Berkshire Hathaway equity > long, but only if I can short out Burlington Northern

8) AAPL equity > long in very small size

9) VRX > Short. Extra short position just for Pearson

10) HLF > I only want to get in on the prop bet on whether the FTC accuses them of being a pyramid scheme. Big-time short of the Ack pyramid scheme thesis.

11) The US Capital Gains tax rate > Hillary won't touch this so sell OTM options and pocket time premium

12) The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations > Short the rate. Whoever gets elected will lower it as a misguided attempt at stimulus in the next recession

13) A basket of equity in the TBTF banks > Can I just short C, cause that always seems like a good bet, otherwise small long

14) LUK > Short until they come up with a comprehensible business strategy

15) Canadian Looney > Long (vs USD) but only because it is a 3 year bet

16) Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD > Short!

Thomas Burnstead said...

LONG - Long-dated oil futures
SHORT - Martin Shkreli
LONG - A spot-priced commodity basket
LONG - helium futures (if they existed)
SHORT Rubio - Any current republican candidate (write in which one)
LONG - long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures
LONG - Berkshire Hathaway equity
LONG - AAPL equity
LONG - VRX
SHORT - HLF
LONG - The US Capital Gains tax rate
LONG - The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations
LONG - A basket of equity in the TBTF banks
LONG - LUK
LONG - Canadian Looney
SHORT - Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD
LONG BXE - write-in

James said...

1. short
2. short
3. short
4. long
5. short Rubio
6. long
7. short
8. short
9. short
10. short
11. long
12. long
13. short
14. short
15. short
16. short

Josh H said...

1. Long
2. Short
3. Long
4. Long (I guess?)
5. Short Reps
6. Long
7. Long
8. Long
9. Long
10. Short
11. Short
12. Short
13. Long
14. Long
15. Long
16. Short
17. Short FB

CP said...

James, what's a fair price for long dated oil?

Admiral said...

1. Long 2022+ delivery
2. Balls short
3. Long
4. Long - Goodyear replacing its fleet is just the beginning of the helium Zeppelin's comeback
5. Balls short: a certain hotel magnate
6. No position
7. Long
8. Long
9. Balls short
10. Short
11. Long
12. Long
13. Long
14. Long
15. Calendar spread - Short spot, long 5y forward
16. Short
17. Stowe Coal Index: Short

CP said...

Thanks Admiral.

#5 - You mean Sheldon Adelson's investment in Rubio?

CP said...

P.S. Admiral - not balls long anything?

innerscorecard said...

1. Short - Long-dated oil futures
2. Long - Martin Shkreli. Even if he serves a jail term, he'll find some way to bounce back, whether as a self-help guru or a consultant or something like that.
3. Short - A spot-priced commodity basket
4. Short - helium futures (if they existed)
5. Short Marco Rubio. If he were to somehow win the Republican primary, he would lose the general election.
6. Short - long-dated Henry Hub natural gas futures
7. Long - Berkshire Hathaway equity
8. Long - AAPL equity
9. Short - VRX
10. Long - HLF
11. Long - The US Capital Gains tax rate
12. Long - The tax rate on repatriated foreign earnings by US corporations
13. Long - A basket of equity in the TBTF banks
14. Long - LUK
15. Short - Canadian Looney
16. Short - Vancouver/Toronto/Calgary real estate priced in USD
17. Short - US labor participation rate

James said...

James, what's a fair price for long dated oil?

Somewhere in the 20s.

James said...

To be clear: I don't expect it to go there next year, but I think all commodities will eventually return to their 2002-03 prices.