Thursday, November 17, 2016

"Trump as the New Nelson Rockefeller"

Good point about Trumpflation:

Trump seems like a response to the low inflation environment of recent years. Big spenders like LBJ and Rocky helped set off inflation in the late 1960s. Nixon’s fiddling with the economy to get re-elected in 1972 appears to have set off a lot of inflation in 1973. But nothing seems to set off CPI inflation anymore, so why not have a big spender President?

Of course, if we happen to get a lot of CPI inflation, then this will look very different.

It’s kind of like how Black Lives Matter and similar anti-law and order fads are a response to the low crime rate of recent years. We got used to the murder rate falling 3% to 5% per year, so why not cut back on law and order in the name of social justice?

But we immediately got hit with double digit inflation in the homicide rate, with much of the inflation centered in a few cities with big BLM protests like Chicago and Baltimore.
The bond market seems to be miles ahead of everyone in figuring this out.


Anonymous said...

Maybe, but on the 2nd point:

1) Murder rate not a perfect proxy for crime/"law and order"
2) You're talking about weak correlation, but still: correlation/causation/heterogeneous explanations--murder rate in Las Vegas way up (not BLM hotspot), murder rate down in NYC (BLM hotspot)...

As for Trump, it seems a consensus among smart money is emerging; bond market is smart but consensus usually contains seeds of its own undermining. We'll see!

Anonymous said...

Bush's presidency turned out to be about 9/11.

Obama's presidency turned out to be about the financial crisis.

Trump's presidency will be about slashing federal spending in response to a U.S. sovereign debt crisis.

Nathan said...

Inflation expectations don't explain why real yields are up 30 basis points across the entire yield curve since November 1st.

B said...

Trump is not going to pull the West out of its death spiral.

B said...

It is a fundamental law of biology that two different species cannot occupy the same ecological niche. One of the species always goes extinct or is forced to vacate its niche. There have been many naturalistic observations and deliberate experiments about this.

For example, see Analytical Theory of Biological Populations by Alfred J. Lotka and David P. Smith.

Nowadays, and for the past 60 years and more, the White population of West Europe and the anglophone countries is being driven extinct by a deliberate, multi-generational plan. This shows in loss of habitat--no-go areas that police fear to patrol, as well as white-flight from choice cities and entire states--falling birth rates, rising death rates, creation of hostile mass media, creation of hostile work
environments in Fortune 500 companies and other large companies, and creation of hostile learning environments in primary schools, middle schools, high schools, colleges and universities, and deliberate efforts to disturb relations between White men and women.

All of this is specifically aimed at Whites, not at Jews, blacks, non-White Hispanics, or Asians.

Whites cannot expect any deep insights from Trump. He is ultra-extroverted. So he gets everything he knows by talking to other people. He condemns and disavows Alt-Right groups.

No White who deeply understands America's death spiral will be invited to Trump Tower.

So Trump will not solve America's fundamental problem, which is that America has multiple incompatible breeding populations, especially since Trump's Orthodox Jewish son-in-law will control access to Trump.

B said...

"Coexistence between ecological homologues is theoretical. It might occur if both species exist at such low densities that competition does not occur. It probably never will actually occur, however. What probably happens is that displacement at low densities is greatly lengthened."

Anonymous said...

"Professional politicians as a rule almost never do rallies. Why? They can’t even come close to filling the space. Voters just don’t care about politicians that much. Pols are not rock stars and they don’t have the draw. It’s not just Hillary being uncharismatic. Nearly all politicians are about as exciting as a pair of wet socks. Trump could do it because he’s spent 30 years building himself up as a celebrity, but a Jeb Bush or a Mitt Romney or other men of that ilk will not get the crowds. That’s why politicians always visit state fairs, etc. They have to go where the crowds are. The crowds don’t come to them."