Monday, January 23, 2017

Consensus of 2017 Prediction Contest

The questions/events and the new scoring rules for the 2017 predictions. Here are the probability averages from most probable to least probable.

Event Average
* Donald Trump is President of the United States at the end of the year 0.92
* A Supreme Court justice is confirmed to replace Scalia 0.87
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) 0.63
* Someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos 0.54
* Crude trades above $62.58 0.46
* Either VRX or SHLD enter bankruptcy 0.41
* Global negative yielding debt goes from ~$10 trillion to under $1 trillion 0.41
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any point 0.41
* The RMB/USD exchange rate goes over 8 at any point 0.39
* Bitcoin (@$901) outperforms gold (@$1182) 0.38
* Buying equal dollar basket of SHLD, JWN, M, WMT outperforms Amazon 0.37
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above 3.5% 0.36
* Hussman is up for the year including dividends (fund currently $7.13) 0.35
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% including dividends 0.34
* Twitter is taken private 0.31
* The S&P 500 exceeds 2,500 0.31
* Gold trades below $1000 0.30
* A Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall 0.30
* CMG trades below 300 0.27
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn leaves the business 0.26
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% 0.26
* Another Supreme Court seat opens 0.24
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year treasury 0.24
* Either Buffett or Munger dies 0.23
* Another Decacorn (peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud 0.23
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed) 0.22
* Any country leaves the Euro currency 0.20
* Gold trades above $2000 0.12
* The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax 0.06
* The state and local taxes deduction is eliminated from federal income tax 0.06
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger 0.03

6 comments:

CP said...

Sorted by standard deviation:

SD
* Someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos at the end of year 0.30
* Either VRX or SHLD enter bankruptcy 0.29
* Crude trades above $62.58 0.25
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any point 0.25
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn leaves the business 0.25
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% 0.24
* Twitter is taken private 0.24
* Hussman is up for the year including dividends (fund currently $7.13) 0.23
* CMG trades below 300 0.23
* A Supreme Court justice is confirmed to replace Scalia 0.23
* The RMB/USD exchange rate goes over 8 at any point 0.23
* A Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall 0.22
* Global negative yielding debt goes from ~$10 trillion to under $1 trillion 0.22
* Buying equal dollar basket of SHLD, JWN, M, WMT outperforms Amazon 0.21
* Gold trades below $1000 0.20
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% including dividends 0.18
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year treasury 0.18
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) 0.18
* Another Decacorn (peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud 0.17
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above 3.5% 0.17
* Any country leaves the Euro currency 0.16
* Another Supreme Court seat opens 0.15
* The S&P 500 exceeds 2,500 0.15
* Bitcoin (@$901) outperforms gold (@$1182) 0.14
* Either Buffett or Munger dies 0.12
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed) 0.11
* Gold trades above $2000 0.08
* Donald Trump is President of the United States at the end of the year 0.07
* The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax 0.07
* The state and local taxes deduction is eliminated from federal income tax 0.04
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger 0.03

eah said...

Mall Owners Rush to Get Out of the Mall Business -- Surge in store closures prompts some shopping-center owners to walk away from troubled locations

whydibuy said...

Hey, CP is getting bullish. Notice there is no downside number for the S&P 500. Only an upside limit of 2500. Well, thats a start on becoming positive on the market. Its about time.

Anonymous said...

Let's see whydI buy's predictions.

whydibuy said...

No, anon, not gonna play this year. Its getting too tiresome to give these doomers and conspiracy wackos a positive reality check. Let them stay negative while we bulls laugh all the way to the bank.

Anonymous said...

You will notice that Trump is creating safe zones in the Middle East for Muslim refugees. Which is arguably a lot better for Muslim refugees than coming to an alien country where they cannot get wives or jobs. The problem for progs is that not just that they want Muslims to go where they please, they want them to go where they please and give ordinary whites (racists) a hard time. They are not worried about the welfare of Muslims refugees, but their status. Safe zones, instead of US migration, undermines Muslim status relative to white Americans. It denies Muslims the opportunity to prove that working class white people in flyover country are low status contemptible hateful people who do not matter.

http://blog.jim.com/politics/trump-derangement-syndrom-and-status/