Tuesday, January 9, 2018

Prediction Time: 2018 Prediction Contest

In our quest to continually improve the contest, we have a larger number of questions this year. Please do not let that discourage you. The larger sample size should increase the likelihood that the winner is the best calibrated predictor.

All probabilities are due by this Friday, January the 12th at 4 p.m. Pacific time. Post your probabilities in the comments section below. Either leave an email address or post using an account so that we can verify the winner's identity next year.

Finally, remember the logarithmic scoring.

Happened in 2017 – Could It Happen Again?
* CMG trades below 300 at any point (not counting Jan 2nd and 3rd of 2018)
* A Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S.
* Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of the year
* Bitcoin (@$15k) outperforms gold (@$1312)

Proposed for First Time in 2017 But Didn't Happen
* Buying equal dollar basket of SHLD, JWN, M, WMT outperforms Amazon
* The RMB/USD exchange rate goes over 8 at any point
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion
* Either Buffett or Munger dies
* Someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos at the end of year (resigns, court appointed receiver, trustee, etc)
* Another Supreme Court seat opens
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336%
* Any country leaves the Euro currency
* Another Decacorn (nonpublic company, peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud
* Either VRX or SHLD enter bankruptcy
* Twitter is taken private
* The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax

Didn't Happen in 2016 or 2017
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity)
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above 3.5%
* Gold trades below $1000
* Hussman is up for the year including dividends (fund currently $7.13)
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% including dividends
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any point
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year treasury
* Gold trades above $2000
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed)
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn leaves the business (dies, fired, resigns, manages personal money only)
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger

New Ones – Political
* Republicans lose the Senate majority
* Republicans lose the House majority
* Joe Arpaio wins Arizona Senate Republican primary
* One or more of Donald Trump Jr or Jared Kushner is indicted
* One or more of Hillary Clinton or Huma Abedin is indicted
* Any TWO or more of the four major Trump cabinet figures (SoS, SoT, SoD, or AG) leaves position (for any reason) during the year
* More than 10,000 of the DACA people are deported
* US ends daylight savings time

New Ones – Cryptocurrency
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1T
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any point during the year

New Ones – Financial Markets
* TSLA share price goes below 200 at any point
* The 90-day T-bill yield exceeds 2%
* The S&P goes below 2,500
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US: Germany, Italy, Canada.
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin.
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 30 at any point during the year
* Federal Reserve raises target rate four times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2018
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2018
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX) has a positive total return for the year
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets declines to below $4 trillion
* Worst performing S&P 500 sector over past 3 & 5 years (energy) outperforms (price) best performing (information technology).
* JPYUSD below 100
* US 30-year treasuries have a positive total return for the year;
* Crude (WTIC) ends the year above $62.58

New Ones – Happenings
* Another year with no commercial jet fatal plane incidents
* 2018 US vehicle sales are under 2017 vehicle sales (17.2 mm in '17, first decline since GFC)
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater affects the continental United States
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL)
* Philadelphia Eagles win the NFL Super Bowl
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. mainland

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Here's a Google doc people can use

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hu1v0LkxiXpPlffSeIp1Na1sr1xkCFx2UyjNwr_fm-0/edit#gid=0

The Lion said...

I think CP missed his calling as an insurance underwriter...

bjdubbs said...

1. 70%
2. 10%
3. 98%
4. 5%
5. 50%
6. 30%
7. 70%
8. 10%
9. 20%
10. 14%
11. 5%
12. 4%
13. 2%
14. 8%
15. 2%
16. 2%
17. 6%
18. 25%
19. 4%
20. 50%
21. 50%
22. 50%
23. 50%
24. 20%
25. 70%
26. 10%
27. 0%
28. 50%
29. 20%
30. 4%
31. 6%
32. 6%
33. 40%
34. 5%
35. 2%
36. 10%
37. 50%
38. 29%
39. 5%
40. 50%
41. 50%
42. 50%
43. 50%
44. 5%
45. 5%
46. 50%
47. 50%
48. 70%
49. 20%
50. 30%
51. 50%
52. 97%
53. 80%
54. 3%
55. 4%
56. 10%
57. 4%

Jason said...

1. 75%
2. 20%
3. 80%
4. 50%
5. 50%
6. 20%
7. 50%
8. 30%
9. 50%
10. 25%
11. 20%
12. 10%
13. 20%
14. 20%
15. 20%
16. 10%
17. 40%
18. 20%
19. 20%
20. 25%
21. 20%
22. 40%
23. 20%
24. 20%
25. 30%
26. 25%
27. 5%
28. 50%
29. 20%
30. 25%
31. 20%
32. 25%
33. 10%
34. 50%
35. 5%
36. 25%
37. 15%
38. 30%
39. 50%
40. 50%
41. 25%
42. 50%
43. 30%
44. 20%
45. 5%
46. 50%
47. 10%
48. 75%
49. 25%
50. 50%
51. 75%
52. 50%
53. 60%
54. 50%
55. 30%
56. 10%
57. 20%

A H said...

* CMG trades below 300 at any point (not counting Jan 2nd and 3rd of 2018) 0.75
* A Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S. 0.9
* Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of the year 0.9
* Bitcoin (@$15k) outperforms gold (@$1312) 0.2
* Buying equal dollar basket of SHLD, JWN, M, WMT outperforms Amazon 0.5
* The RMB/USD exchange rate goes over 8 at any point 0.15
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion 0.5
* Either Buffett or Munger dies 0.05
* Someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos at the end of year (resigns, court appointed receiver, trustee, etc) 0.99
* Another Supreme Court seat opens 0.3
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% 0.2
* Any country leaves the Euro currency 0.01
* Another Decacorn (nonpublic company, peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud 0.1
* Either VRX or SHLD enter bankruptcy 0.5
* Twitter is taken private 0.01
* The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax 0.01
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) 0.1
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above 3.5% 0.2
* Gold trades below $1000 0.3
* Hussman is up for the year including dividends (fund currently $7.13) 0.5
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% including dividends 0.1
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any point 0.6
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year treasury 0.5
* Gold trades above $2000 0.4
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed) 0.5
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn leaves the business (dies, fired, resigns, manages personal money only) 0.6
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger 0.01
* Republicans lose the Senate majority 0.5
* Republicans lose the House majority 0.5
* Joe Arpaio wins Arizona Senate Republican primary 0.5
* One or more of Donald Trump Jr or Jared Kushner is indicted 0.5
* One or more of Hillary Clinton or Huma Abedin is indicted 0.01
* Any TWO or more of the four major Trump cabinet figures (SoS, SoT, SoD, or AG) leaves position (for any reason) during the year 0.8
* More than 10,000 of the DACA people are deported 0.1
* US ends daylight savings time 0.01
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1T 0.2
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any point during the year 0.1
* TSLA share price goes below 200 at any point 0.4
* The 90-day T-bill yield exceeds 2% 0.1
* The S&P goes below 2,500 0.05
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US: Germany, Italy, Canada. 0.5
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin. 0.1
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 30 at any point during the year 0.3
* Federal Reserve raises target rate four times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2018 0.2
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2018 0.05
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX) has a positive total return for the year 0.8
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets declines to below $4 trillion 0.2
* Worst performing S&P 500 sector over past 3 & 5 years (energy) outperforms (price) best performing (information technology). 0.5
* JPYUSD below 100 0.5
* US 30-year treasuries have a positive total return for the year; 0.6
* Crude (WTIC) ends the year above $62.58 0.7
* Another year with no commercial jet fatal plane incidents 0.5
* 2018 US vehicle sales are under 2017 vehicle sales (17.2 mm in '17, first decline since GFC) 0.1
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater affects the continental United States 0.05
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL) 0.01
* Philadelphia Eagles win the NFL Super Bowl 0.01
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. mainland 0.2

@shishiqiushi on twitter

Tom said...


Probability (0-1, as decimal, not %)
* CMG trades below 300 at any point (not counting Jan 2nd and 3rd of 2018) 0.8
* A Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S. 0.35
* Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of the year 0.85
* Bitcoin (@$15k) outperforms gold (@$1312) 0.5
* Buying equal dollar basket of SHLD, JWN, M, WMT outperforms Amazon 0.3
* The RMB/USD exchange rate goes over 8 at any point 0.1
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion 0.2
* Either Buffett or Munger dies 0.2
* Someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos at the end of year (resigns, court appointed receiver, trustee, etc) 0.3
* Another Supreme Court seat opens 0.2
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% 0.1
* Any country leaves the Euro currency 0.1
* Another Decacorn (nonpublic company, peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud 0.3
* Either VRX or SHLD enter bankruptcy 0.1
* Twitter is taken private 0.15
* The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax 0.01
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) 0.2
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above 3.5% 0.5
* Gold trades below $1000 0.4
* Hussman is up for the year including dividends (fund currently $7.13) 0.5
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% including dividends 0.6
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any point 0.2
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year treasury 0.5
* Gold trades above $2000 0.1
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed) 0.5
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn leaves the business (dies, fired, resigns, manages personal money only) 0.2
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger 0.01
* Republicans lose the Senate majority 0.3
* Republicans lose the House majority 0.5
* Joe Arpaio wins Arizona Senate Republican primary 0.3
* One or more of Donald Trump Jr or Jared Kushner is indicted 0.3
* One or more of Hillary Clinton or Huma Abedin is indicted 0.1
* Any TWO or more of the four major Trump cabinet figures (SoS, SoT, SoD, or AG) leaves position (for any reason) during the year 0.4
* More than 10,000 of the DACA people are deported 0.3
* Voluntary or forced?
* US ends daylight savings time 0.05
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1T 0.2
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any point during the year 0.2
* TSLA share price goes below 200 at any point 0.5
* The 90-day T-bill yield exceeds 2% 0.6
* The S&P goes below 2,500 0.6
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US: Germany, Italy, Canada. 0.4
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin. 0.6
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 30 at any point during the year 0.5
* Federal Reserve raises target rate four times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2018 0.4
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2018 0.2
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX) has a positive total return for the year 0.4
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets declines to below $4 trillion 0.5
* Worst performing S&P 500 sector over past 3 & 5 years (energy) outperforms (price) best performing (information technology). 0.6
* JPYUSD below 100 0.5
* US 30-year treasuries have a positive total return for the year; 0.4
* Crude (WTIC) ends the year above $62.58 0.3
* Another year with no commercial jet fatal plane incidents 0.1
* 2018 US vehicle sales are under 2017 vehicle sales (17.2 mm in '17, first decline since GFC) 0.4
* An earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater affects the continental United States 0.01
* A players' strike occurs in any of the four major US sports leagues (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL) 0.1
* Philadelphia Eagles win the NFL Super Bowl 0.125
* A tropical cyclone makes the list of 10 wettest on the U.S. mainland 0.05

innerscorecard said...

Happened in 2017 – Could It Happen Again?
* CMG trades below 300 at any point (not counting Jan 2nd and 3rd of 2018) - 95%
* A Cat 3 hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S. - 33%
* Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of the year - 90%
* Bitcoin (@$15k) outperforms gold (@$1312) - 33%

Proposed for First Time in 2017 But Didn't Happen
* Buying equal dollar basket of SHLD, JWN, M, WMT outperforms Amazon - 33%
* The RMB/USD exchange rate goes over 8 at any point - 10%
* Global negative yielding debt goes under $1 trillion - 50%
* Either Buffett or Munger dies - 49%
* Someone besides Elizabeth Holmes is running Theranos at the end of year (resigns, court appointed receiver, trustee, etc) - 10%
* Another Supreme Court seat opens - 20%
* The 10 year Treasury yield falls below the July 6, 2016 low of 1.336% - 10%
* Any country leaves the Euro currency - 10%
* Another Decacorn (nonpublic company, peak valuation >$10 billion) is uncovered as a fraud - 51%
* Either VRX or SHLD enter bankruptcy - 33%
* Twitter is taken private - 5%
* The home mortgage interest deduction is eliminated from federal income tax - 5%

Didn't Happen in 2016 or 2017
* A Euro hits $1 US. (EURUSD parity) - 33%
* The 10 year Treasury yield rises above 3.5% - 33%
* Gold trades below $1000 - 5%
* Hussman is up for the year including dividends (fund currently $7.13) - 33%
* Buying equal dollar basket of FB/AAPL/NFLX/GOOGL returns below 0% including dividends - 49%
* The BBB yield closes above 5% at any point - 33%
* A 2 year treasury yields more than 10 year treasury - 51%
* Gold trades above $2000 - 33%
* One or more of Kim/Merkel/Saudis loses power (dies, resigns, or is deposed) - 15%
* One or more of Gross/Ackman/Miller/Hussman/Einhorn leaves the business (dies, fired, resigns, manages personal money only) - 33%
* A nuclear weapon is used in anger - 1%

New Ones – Political
* Republicans lose the Senate majority - 33%
* Republicans lose the House majority - 50%
* Joe Arpaio wins Arizona Senate Republican primary - 15%
* One or more of Donald Trump Jr or Jared Kushner is indicted - 33%
* One or more of Hillary Clinton or Huma Abedin is indicted - 1%
* Any TWO or more of the four major Trump cabinet figures (SoS, SoT, SoD, or AG) leaves position (for any reason) during the year - 33%
* More than 10,000 of the DACA people are deported - 10%
* US ends daylight savings time - 5%

New Ones – Cryptocurrency
* Cryptocurrency combined market cap on Coinmarketcap.com exceeds $1T - 33%
* The Flippening: Etherium market cap is greater than Bitcoin (core/classic) at any point during the year - 10%

New Ones – Financial Markets
* TSLA share price goes below 200 at any point - 51%
* The 90-day T-bill yield exceeds 2% - 49%
* The S&P goes below 2,500 - 49%
* Any of the following countries' 10-year government bonds yield more than US: Germany, Italy, Canada. - 33%
* Total return of 1 year T-bill outperforms S&P 500, Nasdaq, and bitcoin. - 50%
* The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) exceeds 30 at any point during the year - 80%
* Federal Reserve raises target rate four times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2018 - 50%
* Federal Reserve lowers target rate any times (in 25bps equivalents) in 2018 - 5%
* The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBINX) has a positive total return for the year - 50%
* Federal Reserve bank balance sheet total assets declines to below $4 trillion - 33%
* Worst performing S&P 500 sector over past 3 & 5 years (energy) outperforms (price) best performing (information technology). - 50%
* JPYUSD below 100 - 33%
* US 30-year treasuries have a positive total return for the year; - 66%
* Crude (WTIC) ends the year above $62.58 - 50%

New Ones – Happenings
* Another year... - 80%
* 2018 US vehicle sales... - 51%
* An earthquake... - 10%
* A players' strike... - 10%
* Philadelphia Eagles... - 10%
* A tropical cyclone... - 10%